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Weekly Focus: Central Bank Meetings for Christmas

Market movers ahead

  • We have a very busy central bank week ahead, with Fed, ECB, BoE and Norges Bank meetings coming up. We expect only the Fed to change its policy rate, hiking the target range to 1.25-1.50%.
  • We are due to get inflation data from the US, UK, Japan, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.
  • We expect EU leaders to say that the UK and EU can start discussing the future relationship at next week’s EU summit.
  • Focus remains on US tax reform and whether the Republicans are able to pass it already before Christmas.

Global macro and market themes

  • We expect the global expansion to continue lending support to profits and risk assets.
  • We do not project a bond bear market though. Rather we look for more US curve flattening.
  • Credit spreads are set to narrow further on a search for yield and low default rates.
  • In the FX space, we look for a weaker USD and a stronger GBP and NOK in 2018.

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Danske Bank
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