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Market Morning Briefing: A Very Quiet Day For All The Majors Going On

STOCKS

Dow (22118.42, +0.12%) has been inching up slowly towards initial resistance near 22200-22250 levels and could face slight dip from there. Overall near term trend is up.

Dax (12257.17, -0.33%) is likely to remain range bound within 12100-12400 levels for the coming sessions. Thereafter we prefer for a rise above 12400-12500 levels but would like to wait for further price confirmation. For now, sideways consolidation may continue in the near term.

Shanghai (3271.76, -0.23%) recovered sharply yesterday from levels near 3240. While the price remains above 3240, we can see a bounce to levels near 3300 again.

Nikkei (19992.17, -0.32%) has fallen from levels near 20100 which may act as a decent immediate resistance. Overall the broad 20200-19900 region may remain intact for the next 4-5 sessions at least.

Nifty (10057.40, -0.09%) could test 10000-9950 before again bouncing back towards current levels. Overall near term looks stable.

COMMODITIES

Neither Gold (1260) nor Silver (16.28) has moved at all in the last session with almost all the commodities, irrespective of the category, have taken a pause after sharp expansion of volatility in the last few days. Repeat – in case the Support at 1245 breaks for Gold, there will be a further dip to 1230 and 1210 levels respectively. Regarding Silver, as long as it trades below 16.50, the chances of further decline to 15.90 and then 15.660-30 look strong.

Copper (2.907) continues its consolidation in 2.85-2.92 but as discussed yesterday, it may soon resume the larger uptrend for the higher levels of 3.00-12. Immediate support comes at 2.78.

The net movement in Brent (52.17) and WTI (49.24) is almost nil in the last 24 hours. View remains unchanged. The bullish stance remains unchanged as long as Brent is trading above 48.70 and WTI above 45.50 levels on a weekly closing basis.

FOREX

A very quiet day for all the majors going on. Dollar Index (93.28) is stable but yet to rise above the resistance of 94.10-40 to negate the downside risks. Euro (1.1813) remains in a corrective phase as expected but as discussed yesterday, if the correction remains limited to 1.1600 levels, then the larger uptrend may resume after a few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (110.63) has barely moved as it keeps trading in the range of 109.30-111.10 and the wait for a breakout goes on which is expected to unfold a trending move.

Pound (1.3047) is consolidating at the lower levels after confirming a top at 1.3266 and the downside targets of 1.2950-30 remain unchanged.

Similar to Yen, Aussie (0.7919) continues its horizontal trading in the range of 0.7875-0.8050 with no particular directional preference but the larger uptrend may resume soon for the higher targets of 0.8100-70.

Dollar Rupee (63.80) enjoyed a corrective bounce to 63.80 yesterday but it may be short lived with sellers expected to return near 63.90-64.10.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have come off slightly and could move down in the near term. The 5Yr (1.81%), 10Yr (2.26%) and the 30Yr (2.84%) may see some corrective fall in the coming sessions.

The UK-US 10Yr (-1.12%) is trading above support levels and could soon move up taking the Pound up with itself.

The German-US 10YR (-1.80%) has some more room on the downside and could come off along with Euro in the near term.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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