View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle
 View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle includes key essays from Bob Prechter, Pete Kendall and media writers who were on the scene in 1997-2000, when it mattered. It includes a timing forecast for the ferocious bear market ahead. Just as important, the book spells out the mistakes along the way, and what you can learn to help avoid those errors in the future.
This book is one of the very rare opportunities in life to learn from a pivotal time in history.
Table of Contents
Section One: Key Essays on the Topping Process of the Great Asset Mania
Leading Up to the Peak of the Average Stock in April 1998
| May 1997 |
Bulls, Bears and Manias |
| June 1997 |
Why the Market is in An Extended Fifth Primary Wave, Not An Extended Third |
| March 1998 |
Style of the Bear Market |
| March 1998 |
A Confluence of Fibonacci Time Spans |
| April 1998 |
The Nostradamus of Wall Street |
| April 1998 |
Relax? |
Leading Up to the Peak in the Dow in January 2000
| September 1998 |
A Major Deflation Is Approaching |
| September 1998 |
The Decoupling Arrives |
| December 1998 |
A Peek at the Future |
| February 1999 |
Game Over |
| July 1999 |
You Heard It Here First |
Battling Euphoria in the Post-Peak Topping Process
| February 2000 |
Deflation and the New Economy |
| May 2000 |
Deflation and Real Estate |
| May 2000 |
One Small Step for the Utilities |
| July 2000 |
Rationalizing High Stock Valuations |
| July 2000 |
A Major Stock Market Low is Still Due in 2003-2004 |
| August 2000 |
“New Economy” Fever |
| August 2000 |
Bust Just Ahead? |
| October 2000 |
GE 1974-2000 = phi x 100 |
Section Two: Retrospective: Errors Made and Knowledge Gained
Calling Too Many Tops
Why I Was Early and What We Have Learned
Postscript
Long Term Forecast Still in Progress
From the Jacket
New Classics Library’s first book on the market was Elliott Wave Principle, in 1978. It challenged the prevailing climate of pessimism and said that in fact a great bull market had already begun, in which the Dow would quintuple. The scene was different twenty years later. In the second half of the 1990s, academic economists, who had been mostly skeptical or silent during two decades of advancing stock prices, began vying among themselves to predict ever-higher targets. Dow 15,000, 36,000, 100,000 and even a million (20 years out, we must deferentially concede) were quoted in the press. The public agreed, buying record amounts of stock month after month, a trend that has continued right through to today. In contrast, with every higher projection and every wave of mass buying, the authors in our stable have grown more bearish, eventually to the point of near apoplexy. As two of them said in Chapter 8 of our 1978 book, the Wave Principle works because investors “can always be counted on to be led to believe that two and two can and do make five.” Today Prechter notes, “This time around, they are convinced that two and two make fifty. By the bottom, they will think that two and two make zero. That will be the time to buy.” If you want to experience the workings of a contrary view, Section One of this book is for you.
Our authors are not always right; they’re just never sheep. Section Two of this book frankly describes a time when being a lone wolf, a voice against the crowd, was unusually counterproductive. The experience did have a silver lining, though, because Prechter’s systematic and introspective review of that time expands our knowledge of market behavior. If you are a student of the Wave Principle, you will find this section especially valuable for the new insights it offers on how the stock market acts during the rarest of events: a Grand Supercycle degree investment mania.
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