Wakeup Call: A Quiet Day On The Macro Side, Look For Earnings Releases
A relatively quiet Monday follows the mixed unemployment report from Friday afternoon. Nonetheless we expect the Friday sell-off to continue, thus remain negative on risk, sell on rallies.
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases |
| Country |
Time (GMT) |
Name |
Saxo |
Consensus |
Prior |
| EC |
09:30 |
Sentix Investor Confidence (FEB) |
|
-2.3 |
-3.7 |
| CA |
13:15 |
Housing Starts (JAN) |
|
180K |
175K |
What's going on?
A quiet Monday in terms of macro data will kick off this week, so focus will be on the reporting companies, and of course the continued problems surrounding the PIIGS countries.
Spreads have widened again and stocks fell overnight over failure to get any closer to a solution to the budget deficits in the Eurozone. We remain negative on risk today and sell on rallies.
The revision of nonfarm payrolls last Friday meant that the March 2009 level was revised down by 930K while the December 2009 level was changed by -1,363K. Meanwhile consumer credit continues to fall, this time by $1.7bn.
FX
| FX |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| EURUSD |
0/- |
Prefer to sell rallies to 1.3670, stop abv 1.3715 for a 1.3570 target. |
| USDJPY |
0/- |
Risk of a rebound up to 89.65 but would sell there for 88.80, stop abv 90.15. |
| EURJPY |
0/- |
Look to sell rallies to 122.50 for a re-test of 121.0. Stop abv 123.10. |
| GBPUSD |
0 |
While below 1.5620 expect to test 1.5500. Abv risks deeper rebound to 1.5725.5925 |
| AUDUSD |
0/- |
Look to sell rallies to 0.8685 res for a retracement back to 0.86 then 0.8580. Stop abv 0.8715. |
Equities
| Equities |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| DAX |
0/- |
Sell on rallies towards 5472 and target 5430. Stop above 5490. |
| FTSE |
0/- |
Sell on rallies towards 5129 and target 5100. Stop above 5145. |
| S&P500 |
0/- |
Sell on rallies towards 1064 and target 1055. Stop above 1067. |
| NASDAQ100 |
0/- |
|
| DJIA |
0/- |
|
Futures
| Commodities |
Daily Stance |
Comment |
| Gold |
0 |
Likely ranging 1,060-1,070. Sell break below for re-test of 1,050. Stop abv 1,076. |
| Silver |
0/- |
Sell rally to 15.15 for re-test of 14.65 lows. Stop abv 15.37. |
| Oil (CLH0) |
0 |
Look for consolidation between 71.30 and 72.20 after Fri’s sharp drop. |
FX-Options
| EURUSD |
Liquidity remains poor and vols marched higher on Friday. Risk reversals are also in sought after as spot attempts to retest levels under 1.36. |
| USDJPY |
Yen vols stay well bid particulary in the 6m-1y part of the curve. Gamma, on the other hand, starts to see offers as spot underperforms. |
| AUDUSD |
Vols haved eased in a quiet Asian session but continue to remain firm. Fears of risk aversion will lend support to risk reversals and gamma in particular. |
Saxo Bank
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