Attention Will Switch to Japan

The yen will tend to weaken if the Bank of Japan takes action on interest rates and the Finance Ministry signals that it will take action to curb yen gains.

The dollar initially slipped after the FOMC decision and settled near 97.00 against the yen as Wall Street dipped in late trading. The Nikkei index rallied strongly on Thursday and this helped weaken the Japanese currency with the dollar pushing back above the 98 level.

The Federal Reserve move to provide additional swap-line facilities to Asian countries helped ease stresses within Asia, notably within South Korea, and this pushed the Japanese currency weaker as forced selling eased.

There will be further speculation that the Bank of Japan will cut interest rates to 0.25% from 0.50% at the Friday meeting and there will also be speculation over official intervention to curb yen gains. The government also confirmed a JPY5trn second fiscal support package for the economy.

Expectations of official action will limit yen support during Thursday, but there will tend to be renewed upward pressure on Friday if the authorities fail to take any action.

Investica
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