European Market Update

Economic gloom pits itself against Central Bank hope; Markets eye US Oct Payrolls

ECONOMIC DATA

(SZ) Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.5% v 2.5%e; Unemployment Rate (sa): 2.6% v 2.6%e

(GE) German Sept Trade Balance: €15.0B v €13.5Be; Current Account: €15.0B v €10.3Be; Imports M/M: 0.9% v -1.0%e; Exports M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e

(FR) French Sept Trade Balance: -€6.3B v -€5.0Be; Central Government Balance: -€56.6B v -€67.6B prior

(NE) Dutch Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v-0.8%e
(NE) Dutch Sept Industrial Sales Y/Y: 12.2% v 3.2% prior

(SW) Swedish Oct Budget Balance Y/Y: SEK200M v SEK54.0B prior
(SW) Swedish Sept Activity Index Level: 122.2 v 122.9 prior

(NO) Norwegian Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v -5.7% prior; Y/Y: -4.2% v -6.1% prior
(NO) Norwegian Sept Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: 0.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e

(GE) German Sept Industrial Production M/M: -3.6% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -0.5%

(BZ) Brazilian IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.45% v 0.42%e; Y/Y: 6.41% v 6.40%

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities: Munich Re [MUV2.GE] reported Q3 Net €7M well below the consensus of €112M. Its net premiums were €8.859b compared to estimates of €8.8B. coupled with gross premiums €9.27B v €9.1Be. It lowered its FY outlook stating that it was unlikely to meet target of €2B net profit target in 2009. it expected to maintain its dividend at €5.50 for FY08 as it cited that it would follow through with its €2B share buyback program. The company is committed to returning over €8B to shareholders by 2010 || Sodexho [SW.FR] Reported FY08 Net €376M above estimates of €360M with revenues in line at €13.6B The company will raise dividend by 10% per share. It Targeted 2009 organic rev growth of 2% to 5% and guided Op Profit of €730 to €760M range versus €736.6M estimates. Announced €50M cost saving plan and freezing of staff. || LaFarge [LG.FR] Reported Q3 Net €647M above €597M estimates and revenues at €5.32B against €5.16B consensus. However, the company could not confirm its FY10 targets citing that business environment was deteriorating. It would limit CAPEX to €2B in FY09 and expend divestment program beyond the €18B target to provided financial flexibility || Belgacom [BELG.BE] Reported Q3 Net €215M versus €207M estimates with revenues of €1.46B against €1.48B estimates. It guided it FY revenue down 12% y/y. Firm stated it was interested in making 'attractive in market deals' and in 'solid financial position' as it holds free cash of €457M as of Sept. Lastly it saw costs of employee restructuring plans to rise | EADS [EAD.FR] EAD.FR: Reportedly had 71 aircraft orders canceled in Oct compared to 9 new orders - French press || British Airways [BAY.UK} Reports H1 Net of a loss £49M compared to profit estimate of £64M. However, revenues were £4.74B above £4.57B estimates. The company raised its FY revenue guidance to +4% compared +3% prior. Oct Load factor 72.6% v 73.7% y/y. || Daimler [DAI.GE] DAI.GE: Reports Oct Mercedes-Benz cars sales at 93.8K, down 18% y/y; YTD sales up 2% || BMW [BMW.GE] Reported Oct Vehicle sales 113K (-8.3% y/y), YTD sales +0.7%.

Speakers: ECB's Liikanen stated that the markets expect interbank rates to fall and that the decline in Euribor is 'key'. He hinted that an ECB interest rate cut is possible in December|| PM Brown stated that the recent round of global interest rate cuts should be followed by stimulus packages. He added that rate cuts must be passed on to the consumer . Lastly he advised world leaders to reject any calls for protectionism within their economies || Indonesian Central Bank the recent drop in Rupiah was the result of scarcity of dollars

In Currencies: The overall USD and the JPY price action continues to be dictated by equity index moves. The strong recovery in the Nikkei from session lows enable some profit-taking in various short-term proprietary desks with GBP-related pairs leading the way. GBP/USD rebounded from Asian session lows of 1.5540 to probe back above 1.58 ahead of the NY morning. EUR/USD firmer by 100 pips at 1.2810. || ECB's Liikanen reitereated central bank view that a December Rate Cut was possible at the ECB. Growing evidence seems t be supporting this view. The Sept Euro-Zone future inflation gauge had largest one-month decline in 7-years and now stands at a 16 month low. Dealer chatter that perhaps the ECB could cut rates by as much as 50bps at the next meeting ||

Fixed Income: Dealers note that German yield curve steepens at highest level since Q4 2004. Spread between German 2-year and 30-year instruments at +192 bps

Energy: Reportedly Israel military option on Iran not ruled out according to media comments from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The minister reportedly stated had rule out any options and added that Israel recommend others nations do not rule out any option either on the topic of Iranian nuclear enrichment program. Comments attributed to post meeting interview with journalists after Minister Barak meet with US Sec of State Rice ||Algeria's Sonatrach CEO stated that he would like to see oil price in a range of $80-$100/bbl. Noted that they would cut output by 71K bpd from 1.3M bpd in line with OPEC's move. Expected production to reach 2M bpd output by 2010 and added that no delays in oil projects were anticipated until 2013

Credit Crisis: ECB Oct Lending Survey: banks tighten net credit standards further in Q3 citing economic outlook for such action. Expects further tightening of credit in Q4.Banks increased margins on loans to firms. Demand for loans fell considerably in Q3||Philippine Central bank lowered reserve requirements || The London interbank offered rate for three-month loans fell to 2.39% 4.82% highs seen back on Oct. 10. Libor remains some 139 basis points above the Fed's benchmark The 5-year average is roughly 22 basis points prior to the onslaught of the global credit crisis in August 2007.

Notes

Overall market is subdued ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report for October. The topic of discussion has centered on the continuing trend towards global zero interest rate policy. Thus the world in mimicking Japan as it converges towards the BOJ rate although some central banks are proceeding at their own pace.

Thus the market is encountering a split personality between the pending economic doom against the hope that the global liquidity action and interest rate cuts will work their magic over time. Central banks are betting that negative real interest rates would induce people to spend rather than save money that is declining in value. With that we are now entering a period of data that will now gauge of the extent of recessionary forces in post-Lehman world. Dealers noting that a 'bad' US Nonfarm payroll number seems to be priced in at this point with expectations at -200K in the month. There are estimates for even a worse outcome. The markets know already that the economy is weak, but the data will indicate how weak it really is. The so-called 'whisper number' is for -250K. Canadian employment also expected data with a -10K expected.

Looking Ahead:

7:00 (CA) Canadian Oct Unemployment Rate. Consensus expectations are 6.2%; The prior number was 6.1%
7:00 (CA) Canadian Net change in Employment. Consensus expectations are -10.0k ; The prior number was -106.9k
8:30 (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. Consensus expectations are -200k; The prior number was -159k
8:30 (US) Oct Unemployment Rate. Consensus expectations are 6.2%; The prior number was 6.1%
8:30 (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings. M/M consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 3.5%; the prior number was 3.4%.
8:30 (US) Oct Average Weekly Hours. Consensus expectations are 33.6; The prior number was 33.6
10:00 (US) Sept Wholesale Inventories: 0.3% expected v 0.8% prior
11:30 (US) Sept Pending Home sales MoM: -3.4% expected v 7.4% prior

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