New York Session Recap
The USD was bid against the majors as concerns about Hurricane Gustav's impact on oil prices were assuaged when the International Energy Agency said it would use strategic inventories if the storm should impact production in the Gulf. Oil made a high of $120.50 in early NY trading before easing off towards a close near $115.50 on the IEA news.
US economic data came in on the positive side as well. The second take on 2Q GDP registered a robust 3.3% after an advance print of 1.9%. This shattered market expectations and suggests the recession in the US is nonexistent for now. Weekly jobless claims were in line with expected at 425K, declining from 435K the prior week. While this indicator has suggested that deterioration in the labor force continues at a gradual pace, it is still well off the 500K "recessionary" level.
EUR/USD was whipped around in early NY trading, rising to a high of 1.4812 before plunging towards the 1.4700 area near the close and losing about 75 pips in the session. GBP/USD was sold as well, shedding about 55 points in the session to a close near 1.8300. Keeping with the flavor of the last few days, USD/JPY traded in a pretty tight range and added about 35 pips to a close near 109.55 with bid US stocks helping the pair higher.
The plethora of Japanese economic data due up in the Asia session should provide JPY crosses with some serious price action. Industrial production and retail sales are due up at 2350GMT and housing starts are on tap at 0500GMT. Look for worse than expected results to confirm further weakness in store for the Japanese economy and good JPY selling as a result. We'd expect to see USD/JPY through 110.00 and EUR/JPY above 162.00 on very poor data results.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) Prior Estimate
- 8/28/2008 22:45 GMT NZ Building Permits MoM JUL -20.10% - -
- 8/28/2008 23:01 GMT UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey AUG -39 -41
- 8/28/2008 23:15 GMT JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI AUG 47 - -
- 8/28/2008 23:30 GMT JN Jobless Rate JUL 4.10% 4.10%
- 8/28/2008 23:30 GMT JN Household Spending (YoY) JUL -1.80% -1.80%
- 8/28/2008 23:30 GMT JN Tokyo CPI YoY AUG 1.60% 1.60%
- 8/28/2008 23:30 GMT JN Natl CPI YoY JUL 2.00% 2.20%
- 8/28/2008 23:50 GMT JN Industrial Production (MoM) JUL P -2.20% -0.50%
- 8/28/2008 23:50 GMT JN Large Retailers' Sales JUL -3.90% -1.70%
- 8/28/2008 23:50 GMT JN Retail Trade YoY JUL 0.30% 1.30%
- 8/28/2008 23:50 GMT JN Retail Trade MoM SA JUL 0.00% 0.10%
- 8/29/2008 1:30 GMT AU Private Sector Credit MoM% JUL 0.40% 0.50%
- 8/29/2008 1:30 GMT AU Private Sector Credit YoY% JUL 11.70% 11.00%
- 8/29/2008 5:00 GMT JN Housing Starts (YoY) JUL -16.70% 15.00%
- 8/29/2008 5:00 GMT JN Annualized Housing Starts JUL 1.130M 1.100M
- 8/29/2008 5:00 GMT JN Construction Orders (YoY) JUL -11.70% - -
- 8/29/2008 5:00 GMT JN Small Business Confidence AUG 39.9 - -
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