Wakeup Call: Stock Indices Closing Below Trendline Supports
Could this be the beginning of another leg lower, triggered by the rapid rise in the US unemployment rate on Friday?
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases |
| Country |
Name |
Time (GMT) |
Expectation |
Prior |
Comment |
| CA |
New Housing Price Index MoM (Nov) |
13:30 |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
|
| CA |
Business Outlook Future Sales (4Q) |
15:30 |
-5.00 |
3.00 |
|
| CA |
BoC Senoir Loan Officer Survey (4Q) |
15:30 |
55.0 |
49.8 |
|
What's going on?
The USD was strengthening over the weekend despite the larger than expected unemployment rate (7.2%) released on Friday.
IMF president, Strauss-Kahn is stating that they will have to hike their estimate of total, credit-related writedowns (current estimate is $1.4T) significantly. We believe that total writedowns will end up around $2.0-2.5T. Strauss-Kahn then asked for another $150B to fight the crisis.
Stocks on the retreat over the weekend, after S&P500 closed below trendline (895.75) support on Friday. The futures are indicating more weakness and this could be the beginning of another leg down.
FX
| FX |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| EURUSD |
- |
Selling bounces the theme here. Resistance 1.3520/1.3550. 1.3180 is 55-day MA |
| EURJPY |
- |
Selling bounces. Wide range possible. 122.75 resistance. 120.00 key support |
| USDJPY |
0 |
90 is a very important support. Would sell rallies, but only for range play. |
| GBPUSD |
0 |
1.5000 is key level this week. 1.5138 is 55-day SMA and first resistance |
| AUDUSD |
- |
for more downside. 0.6700 area is 55-day MA. Resistance at 0.6950/0.7000 |
Equities
| Equities |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| DAX |
0/- |
Edging lower towards the 4635ish level. Keep stops above 4850. |
| FTSE |
0/- |
Sell the break of 4410 for a test of 4285. Stop at 4430. |
| S&P500 |
0/- |
|
| Nasdaq100 |
0/- |
|
| Nikkei225 |
0/- |
|
Futures
| Commodities |
Daily Stance |
Comment |
| Gold (XAUUSD) |
- |
Sell with a stop above 857 for a test at the 837 support. |
| Silver (XAGUSD) |
0 |
Important trendline support around 10.95 today. Sell the break. |
| Oil (CLG9) |
- |
Sell the break of 39.38 for a test of 37. Keep a $1 stop. |

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