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Stock Indices Closing Below Trendline Supports Print E-mail
Fundamental Archives | Written by Saxo Bank | Jan 12 09 02:03 GMT

Wakeup Call: Stock Indices Closing Below Trendline Supports

Could this be the beginning of another leg lower, triggered by the rapid rise in the US unemployment rate on Friday?

Calendar

Economic Data Releases
Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment
CA New Housing Price Index MoM (Nov) 13:30 -0.3% -0.4%  
CA Business Outlook Future Sales (4Q) 15:30 -5.00 3.00  
CA BoC Senoir Loan Officer Survey (4Q) 15:30 55.0 49.8  

What's going on?

The USD was strengthening over the weekend despite the larger than expected unemployment rate (7.2%) released on Friday.

IMF president, Strauss-Kahn is stating that they will have to hike their estimate of total, credit-related writedowns (current estimate is $1.4T) significantly. We believe that total writedowns will end up around $2.0-2.5T. Strauss-Kahn then asked for another $150B to fight the crisis.

Stocks on the retreat over the weekend, after S&P500 closed below trendline (895.75) support on Friday. The futures are indicating more weakness and this could be the beginning of another leg down.

FX

FX Daily stance Comment
EURUSD - Selling bounces the theme here. Resistance 1.3520/1.3550. 1.3180 is 55-day MA
EURJPY - Selling bounces. Wide range possible. 122.75 resistance. 120.00 key support
USDJPY 0 90 is a very important support. Would sell rallies, but only for range play.
GBPUSD 0 1.5000 is key level this week. 1.5138 is 55-day SMA and first resistance
AUDUSD - for more downside. 0.6700 area is 55-day MA. Resistance at 0.6950/0.7000

Equities

Equities Daily stance Comment
DAX 0/- Edging lower towards the 4635ish level. Keep stops above 4850.
FTSE 0/- Sell the break of 4410 for a test of 4285. Stop at 4430.
S&P500 0/-  
Nasdaq100 0/-  
Nikkei225 0/-  

Futures

Commodities Daily Stance Comment
Gold (XAUUSD) - Sell with a stop above 857 for a test at the 837 support.
Silver (XAGUSD) 0 Important trendline support around 10.95 today. Sell the break.
Oil (CLG9) - Sell the break of 39.38 for a test of 37. Keep a $1 stop.

Saxobank

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.

 

About the Author

Saxobank

Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time.

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis.

Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.

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