Trade Desk Thoughts - Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (September) Actual 59.8, Expected 54.6, Previous 58.5 (Revised from 56.9)

Release Explanation: A survey of the sentiment of the public regarding current and future economic conditions.

Economic impact Builds an economic picture of the mood of the economy's consumer and therefore how well the Service based economies may fair over the coming months. Retail Sales, New & Existing Home Sales, CPI, Durable Goods, GDP over a period of time if a constant trend is being built. A currency will eventually be affected by these numbers, but only once they filter through to the main releases.

Trade Desk Thoughts: The index showed a slight gain for September. The Present Situation index fell to 58.8 from 65.0, but the expectations Index rose to 60.5 from 54.1. Consumers' assessment of the labor market continues to deteriorate. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.8% from 31.7% in August, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 12.2% from 13.5%. The outlook for the job market also moderately improved. The percent of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead declined to 26.8% from 30.0%, while those anticipating more jobs increased to 11.8% from 10.7%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead decreased slightly to 14.2% from 15.4%.

"The survey was completed before the recent market disruptions really took hold," said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. "The market is really trading speculation that the House will vote Thursday on the Treasury's bailout plan."

Forex Technical Reaction: The euro is continuing its decline against the dollar on speculation of an emergency rate cut from the ECB.

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