USD Recovers from Overnight Selling

The greenback fell sharply against the majors early in the Friday session before regaining its footing by the New York afternoon. The dollar briefly fell to 1.5059 against the sterling and 1.2636 versus the euro. Trading in the foreign exchange market remained choppy and volatile, benefiting the Japanese yen amid heightened risk aversion. US equity bourses recovered from earlier session losses to hover near flat by afternoon trading while crude oil remained mired beneath $50 per barrel.

Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the Fed would take all appropriate actions on the economy, adding that financial conditions could not be called accommodating now. He warned that the current economic climate was very serious and that monetary conditions were not enough to curtail the rise in the unemployment rate. Evans said that monetary policy can only do so much more and said bringing the Fed funds rate to zero would be a complicated issue.

There was no economic data from the US released today. The calendar for next week consists of Q3 preliminary GDP, personal consumption, November consumer confidence, personal spending, PCE, and durable goods orders.

Given the deterioration in global economic fundamentals and heightened fears for recession, we anticipate further gains in the dollar and yen over the coming weeks as traders continue to shift funds away from the euro and sterling. Further, economic data from the Eurozone and UK raise prospects for a deep and prolonged recession with both respective central banks still not acting as aggressively as the Fed.

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