EMU Economic Indicators Preview
(Week of 12 to 18 May 2008)
- German GDP is expected to have soared in Q1
- EMU and French GDP are likely to have grown robustly in Q1
- EMU industrial production is expected to have decreased slightly in March
- HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be confirmed at 3.3% yoy for April
| Region |
Indicator |
Date |
BHF forecast |
Previous |
| IT |
Industrial production / Mar |
Mon 12 May, 10:00 |
97.8
0.0% mom
-1.3% yoy |
97.8
-0.2% mom
-1.1% yoy |
| FR |
HICP / Apr |
Wed 14 May, 8:45 |
0.3% mom
3.3% yoy |
0.8% mom
3.5% yoy |
| IT |
HICP / Apr final |
Wed 14 May, 10:00 |
0.5% mom
3.5% yoy |
1.6% mom
3.6% yoy |
| EMU |
Industrial production / Mar |
Wed 14 May, 11:00 |
113.7
-0.2% mom
2.3% yoy |
113.9
0.3% mom
3.1% yoy |
| GE |
GDP / Q1 2008 |
Thur 15 May, 8:00 |
0.7% qoq
1.8% yoy |
0.3% qoq
1.8% yoy |
| GE |
CPI / Apr final |
Thur 15 May, 8:00 |
-0.2% mom
2.4% yoy |
0.5% mom
3.1% yoy |
| FR |
GDP / Q1 2008 |
Thur 15 May, 8:45 |
0.4% qoq
1.9% yoy |
0.4% qoq
2.1% yoy |
| EMU |
ECB publishes Monthly Bulletin / Mar |
Thur 15 May, 10:00 |
|
|
| EMU |
HICP / Apr final |
Thur 15 May, 11:00 |
0.3% mom
3.3% yoy |
1.0% mom
3.6% yoy |
| EMU |
GDP / Q1 2008 |
Thur 15 May, 11:00 |
0.5% qoq
1.9% yoy |
0.4% qoq
2.2% yoy |
| EMU |
Trade balance (nsa) / Mar |
Fri 16 May, 11:00 |
€2.5bn |
€0.8bn |
German GDP will probably have increased by at least 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2008. Output in the producing sector and retail sales alone indicate a growth rate of even more than 1%. On 15 May, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing a "flash release" on German GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 27 May. Domestic demand is likely to have had a favourable impact on overall GDP, driven mainly by investment in buildings. However, net exports will probably have dampened GDP growth. French GDP is likely to have grown by at least 0.4 % in Q1, just like French industrial production and consumer spending. As a result, Q1 EMU GDP is expected to have increased by at least 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
Italian industrial production might have remained more or less unchanged in March, as the correlated climate indicators sent mixed signals. March EMU industrial production is expected to have decreased somewhat, just like the average of the corresponding national figures. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance will probably have improved in March.
Given the results in the Länder, German consumer price inflation in April is expected to be confirmed at 2.4 % yoy and -0.2 % mom. Final HICP inflation in the eurozone is likely to be confirmed at 3.3 % year-on-year in April, i.e. 0.3 % month-on-month.
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