EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 6 to 12 October 2008)

• German industrial new orders (August): down
• Output in the German producing sector (August): down

German industrial new orders probably decreased in August for the ninth time in a row, as the correlated climate indicators continued deteriorating. Output in the German producing sector could have declined too, as most of the correlated indicators dropped.

The German trade balance might have rebounded somewhat in August, after it had declined unexpected heavily in July. However, the German current account is likely to have continued deteriorating in August. French industrial production is expected to have suffered a setback in August, because all correlated indicators deteriorated. Italian industrial production will probably have decreased too in August, because most of the correlated indicators changed for the worse. Q2 EMU GDP is not expected to be revised significantly.

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