EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 13 to 19 October 2008)

• German ZEW economic sentiment (October): down
• EMU industrial production (August): up
• HICP inflation in the euro area (August): likely to be confirmed at 3.6% yoy

In October, the German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have suffered a setback after having improved twice unexpectedly. In the last four weeks, an increasing number of the financial analysts, who participate in the ZEW survey, will probably have realized the extent of the current financial turmoil and its potential long term effects on economic growth. Both the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have deteriorated. The German yield spread has done so too, as long-term interest rates have gone down, whereas short-term rates have increased. Moreover, the DAX performance index has declined. However, the euro has depreciated and the crude oil price has fallen.

EMU industrial production has probably increased significantly in August, just like most of the corresponding national figures. The EMU trade balance is likely to have deteriorated in August, similar to the corresponding German figure.

Final HICP inflation in the eurozone is likely to be confirmed at 3.6% in September. The monthly inflation rate is expected to be 0.0%. German consumer price inflation in August will probably be confirmed at 2.9 % yoy and -0.1 % mom. According to the preliminary results, the monthly decrease was mainly due to seasonally lower prices for accommodation and package tours as well as for food.

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