EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 8 to 14 February 2010)

• German GDP (Q4): unchanged
• EMU GDP (Q4): up
• EMU industrial production (December): up

On 12 February, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its “flash release” on German Q4 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 24 February. As already suggested by Destatis, German GDP growth will probably have remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2009. Italian GDP could have stagnated in Q4 too, as industrial production decreased in that period. However, French and overall EMU GDP are likely to have risen in Q4.

French, Italian and EMU industrial production will probably have increased in December, because most of the correlated indicators went up. Following their seasonal pattern, the German trade balance could have suffered a setback in December, contrary to the German current account.

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