EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 15 to 21 February 2010)

• German ZEW economic sentiment (February): unchanged
• PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): slightly up

The German ZEW economic sentiment could have remained more or less unchanged in February, as the correlated indicators sent mixed signals. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. The euro has depreciated and crude oil prices have gone down. However, German yield spreads have narrowed, as long-term interest rates have decreased more than short-term rates. Furthermore, the DAX has gone down.

The Purchasing Managers' Indices for the manufacturing sector in Germany and in the EMU and EMU consumer confidence are expected to have improved slightly in February., whereas French business confidence might only have stabilised, after having soared the previous month.

Following their usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance will probably have gone up slightly in December, but the EMU current account could have improved substantially.

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