Forex Daily Technical Report

Yen Continues to Rebound on Risk Aversion

The Japanese yen continues to extends its recent rebound on carry trade unwinding. Market's are still focusing of subprime problem spillover which pushes investors away from riskier assets. Sterling also continues to strength to new 26 years high on speculation of more rate hikes from BoE. Meanwhile, Euro is little changed against dollar as both Services and Manufacturing PMI provides no spark to the common currency.

Canadian retail sales will be the main focus in the coming US session. CAD continues to trade in tight range above 1.0399 since last week. Markets expect headline sales growth to stay unchanged at 0.4% but ex-auto sales to rebound from 0% to 0.5%. Opinions are divided on the timing of another rate hike from BoC and a strong figure today will likely change the expectation, even though BoC is still not expected to hike any time soon.

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3785; (P) 1.3814; (R1) 1.3834; More

Not much to add to the outlook of EUR/USD as it continues to trade in tight range below 1.3843 high and struggling around 1.3822 projection level. Further rally is still in favor as long as 1.3778 support holds. However, we'd like to emphasize that a short term top should be around the corner with overbought condition in both daily and weekly RSI, as well as mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 1.3778 support, will indicate confirm a short term top is formed and encourage pull back towards support zone of 1.3567 to 1.3658.

In the bigger picture, the current development dampened the original view that rise from 1.3262 is the last advance in a five wave structure that started at 1.2483. Firstly, the current momentum of the rise from 1.3262 is seen stronger than the prior rally from 1.2865 to 1.3681. Secondly, the falling trend line in both daily MACD and RSI were broken, negating the bearish divergence conditions. In other words, the underlying bullishness in EUR/USD could be much stronger than we originally thought.

Focus remains on 1.3822 resistance. Sustained trading above this level will add much weight to the case that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 is indeed resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 (00 low). That is, further rise should be seen in medium term towards 95 high of 1.4523 with much chance to extend further to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004.

On the downside,as long as 1.3481 support holds, any pull back will still be treated as correction to rally from 1.3262 only and another rise is still in expected after completion. However, break will put 1.3262 low into focus. And break will indicate that medium term rally from 1.1639 has likely completed after being limited by 1.3822 resistance as originally expected.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0558; (P) 2.0580; (R1) 2.0614; More

Cable continues it's recent rally and reaches as high as 2.0652 so far today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 2.0556 support holds. Next target will be medium term target of 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677.

However, a short term top could be around the corner with overbought condition being displayed in both daily and weekly RSI. Upside of the current rally could be limited between by2.0677. Below 2.0556 support will indicate that a short term top is likely formed, probably with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, and bring pull back to inner rising trend line (now at 2.0353) or lower.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of 2.0207 projection target confirms underlying upside momentum is still strong. Also, it added much credence to the case that whole up trend from 1.7047 is resumption of multi-year up trend from 1.3680. In such case, further rally should then be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677 first. Sustained trading above 2.0677 will target 2.1 psychological resistance.

On the downside, in case of a pull back, downside should be contained by support zone between 2.0056 and 2.0206 and bring another rally. Break of 2.0056 will suggest that lengthier consolidation will come first with the prospect of another test the medium term rising trend line (now at 1.9807) But medium term outlook will be neutral at worst at long as 1.9621 support remains intact.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2000; (P) 1.2039; (R1) 1.2096; More.

USD/CHF continues to consolidate above 1.1960 low today. As discussed before, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 1.2232 to 1.1960 at 1.2128. On the downside, below 1.1982 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retest of 1.1960 low. But still, since a short term bottom is possibly in place at 1.1960 with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, firm break of 1.1960 is needed to confirm fall from 1.2467 has resumed. Otherwise, consolidation could still extend further.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF has likely completed a medium term triangle consolidation already, which started at 1.1919 with five waves to 1.2467. Firm break of 1.1993 will confirm this case. 1.1878 (06 low) will be the initial target. And since, in such case, fall from 1.2467 is viewed as resumption of medium term down trend from 1.3283, further weakness should be seen to 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404, with much chance to extend to retest 1.1288 (04 low).

On the upside, break of 1.2232 resistance will mess up the short term picture a little bit. In such case, chance is swung to the case that the triangle consolidation indeed started at 1.1878. In other words, the overall outlook didn't change and just that another rally should be seen before completion. Hence, even in such case, upside should be limited below 1.2467 high and bring another medium term decline.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.70; (P) 121.19; (R1) 121.58; More

USD/JPY's fall resumes today by breaking through mentioned 120.76 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 120.70) and reaches as low as 120.38 so far. At this point, further decline is still expected to follow as long as 121.51 resistance holds. Next target will be 118.35/57 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 108.99 to 124.13 at 118.35 and 61.8% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 118.57)

On the upside, above 121.51 will indicate a short term bottom is formed and turn into consolidation. But a break above 120.60 resistance is needed to indicate fall from 124.13 has completed. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 115.13 has made a top at 124.13 and turned into consolidation since then. But still, rally from 108.99, which is treated as resumption of whole up trend from 101.66, is in progress. Even in case of a deeper correction, downside is expected to be contained by 118.35/57 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 108.99 to 124.13 at 118.35 and 61.8% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 118.57) and bring rally resumption. Next medium term upside target will be resistance zone of 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72 and 100% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 128.31.

However, break of 118.35/57 cluster support argue that rise from 108.99 has possibly completed and put 115.13 low into focus.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.68; (P) 167.51; (R1) 168.01; More

Similar to USD/JPY, EUR/JPY extends weakness further today, breaking through 167.13/17 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 161.49 to 168.93 at 167.17 and 38.2% retracement of 164.23 to 168.93 at 167.13) and reaches as low as 166.34. At this point, further decline should follow as long as 167.79 resistance holds. Next downside target will be short term rising trend line (now at 165.83).

On the upside, above 167.79 will indicate a short term bottom is likely formed and turn into consolidation. But break of 168.86 resistance is needed to indicate correction from 168.93 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rally from 130.60 is still in progress and the interpretation remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. With 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 taken out decisively, next medium term upside target will be 100% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 173.22.

However, break of the short term rising trend line support (now at 165.83) will dampen this view and indicate that the rise from 150.75 has possibly completed earlier then we thought, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Medium term trend line support (now at 155.67) will then be put into focus.

Forex News Digest

Manufacturing, Services Growth in Europe Slowed More Than Forecast in July

Dollar Declines to Lowest in Two Months on U.S. Subprime Mortgage Concerns

Swaption Volatility May Fall as Subprime Fears Ease, RBC Greenwich Says

Pound Rises to 26-Year High on Speculation Bank of England to Raise Rates

Sarkozy Struggle Is Deja Vu for Trichet, With Europe's Economy at Stake

New Zealand and Australian Dollars Surge to Highest in About Two Decades

New Zealand's Dollar May Extend Rally to 83 U.S. Cents, Lawmaker Key Says

Dollar slows decent lows as stocks lend support
Tue, 24 Jul 2007 06:16:00 GMT from International Herald Tribune

Dollar hits 2-mth low vs yen, languishes vs euro
Tue, 24 Jul 2007 05:54:00 GMT from Reuters

Dollar Declines to Lowest in Two Months on U.S. Subprime Mortgage Concerns
Tue, 24 Jul 2007 05:34:00 GMT from Bloomberg

US dollar hovers at record low
Tue, 24 Jul 2007 05:04:00 GMT from The Australian

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