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(CEP News) - There will be a slew of key releases out of Japan next week, including industrial production, unemployment and inflation results. The Bank of Japan will also hold its monetary policy meeting.
Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics, said industrial production should improve in March from several consecutive record-high declines. "A small rise in March would be consistent with the improvement in the business surveys and the stabilization in the export data," he said. The general consensus among economists is for industrial production to climb 0.8% against a 9.4% drop the month prior, although forecasts range from an 8.0% decline to a 4.3% increase. Japan's unemployment report is expected to reveal a continuous climb in the unemployment rate, this time from 4.4% to 4.5%. Japan's unemployment rate, however, is much lower than that of its international peers, such as the United States, with an 8.5% unemployment rate, and Spain, with a quarterly jobless rate of 17.36%. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation is expected to continue levelling off. Core CPI is expected to turn negative and fall 0.2% year-over-year in March after a flat reading the month prior. "Given the expected unprecedented large deflationary gap in coming quarters and low commodity prices, we suppose Japan's core CPI will decline more than 2% in 3Q," HSBC economist Seiji Shiraishi said on the future outlook for Japanese inflation. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is expected to yield few substantial policy moves. The Bank's target rate has been sitting at 0.10% for some time, as the bank moves to buy up commercial paper, Japanese government bonds and other assets to get credit markets flowing. However, market participants are watching the Japanese government and its multi-trillion yen stimulus plan to boost the ailing economy. Many economists say Japan's economic suffering is almost entirely due to overseas pressure, in which case the country would simply have to wait out the global recession. Turning to New Zealand's central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecast to cut rates by 50 basis points to 2.50%, pushing onward with an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. All times in EDT. Monday: 19:50 JP Large Retailers' Sales March Exp: -7.8% Prior: -8.2% Revised: -8.1% 19:50 JP Retail Trade (Y/Y) March Exp: -4.9% Prior: -5.8% Revised: -5.7% 19:50 JP Retail Trade (M/M) SA March Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -0.2% 20:00 JP Bank of Japan Starts two-day Regular Policy Board Meeting Tuesday: 1:00 JP Small Business Confidence April Exp: +31 Prior: +30.4 2:00 JP Bank of Japan to Release Semi-Annual Economic Outlook Report 18:45 NZ Trade Balance March Exp: +250.0M Prior: +489.0M 18:45 NZ Imports March Exp: +3.34B Prior: +2.97B 18:45 NZ Exports March Exp: +3.55B Prior: +3.46B 18:45 NZ Trade balance for full year March Exp: -4893 Prior: -5161 23:00 NZ Money Supply M3 (Y/Y) March Prior: +8.7% 23:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence April Prior: -39.3 April 28 NZ AON 1-Year Inflation Expect April Prior: +2.1% Wednesday: 17:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Exp: 2.5% Prior: 3.00% 18:45 NZ Building Permits (M/M) March Prior: +11.6% 19:15 JP Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI April Prior: +33.8 19:50 JP Industrial Production (M/M) March Preliminary Exp: +0.8% Prior: -9.4% 19:50 JP Industrial Production (Y/Y) March Preliminary Exp: -34.7% Prior: -38.4% 20:00 AU Conference Board Leading Index February Prior: -0.6% 21:00 AU HIA New Home Sales (M/M) March Prior: +3.9% 21:30 AU Private Sector Credit (M/M) March Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.0% 21:30 AU Private Sector Credit (Y/Y) March Exp: +4.8% Prior: +5.4% 21:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Q1 Prior: -42 April 29 JP Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision Exp: 0.1% Prior: 0.1% Thursday: 00:00 JP Vehicle Production (Y/Y) March Prior: -56.2% 1:00 JP Housing Starts (Y/Y) March Exp: -22.6% Prior: -24.9% 1:00 JP Annualized Housing Starts March Exp: +0.865M Prior: +0.866M 1:00 JP Construction Orders (Y/Y) March Prior: -24.9% 19:30 JP Jobless Rate March Exp: +4.5% Prior: +4.4% 19:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio March Exp: +0.55 Prior: +0.59 19:30 JP Household Spending (Y/Y) March Exp: -2.7% Prior: -3.5% 19:30 JP Tokyo CPI (Y/Y) April Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.2% 19:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Y/Y) April Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.4% 19:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) April Exp: -0.5% Prior: -0.4% 19:30 JP National CPI (Y/Y) March Exp: -0.3% Prior: -0.1% 19:30 JP National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Y/Y) March Exp: -0.2% Prior: +0.0% 19:30 JP National CPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) March Exp: -0.2% Prior: -0.1% 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E April 24 Prior: -¥383.9B 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E April 24 Prior: -¥51.8B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E April 24 Prior: +¥98.5B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E April 24 Prior: +¥1030.0B 21:30 JP Labor Cash Earnings (Y/Y) March Exp: -2.8% Prior: -2.7% Revised: -2.4% Friday: 1:00 JP Vehicle Sales (Y/Y) April Prior: -31.5% By Megan Ainscow,
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