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The Week Ahead Japan & Australia: Japanese GDP, Australian Commonwealth Budget Print E-mail
Asian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  May 09 08 22:14 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Japanese GDP figures will be a focus for markets on Thursday. In Australia, the Commonwealth budget to be released on Tuesday will also be a highlight.

In Japan, expectations are for a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter increase in GDP, down from a previous 0.9% increase. Nominal quarter-over-quarter GDP is expected to increase 0.3%, up from a 0.2% increase. The preliminary annualized GDP is expected to increase 2.5% after a previous 3.5% increase. The Q1 GDP deflator is expected to decrease 1.5% year-over-year, following a previous 1.3% decline.

Mark Williams from Capital Economics wrote that the outlook is relatively good for Japanese GDP.

"The Tankan survey has declined, but it remains well above recession territory. Accordingly, we think that GDP rose by 0.7% q/q," he wrote in a research note to clients. "Looking ahead, there are concerns about Japan's exposure to a US-led global slowdown. Net exports accounted for more than half of last year's growth. But non-manufacturing is holding up relatively well. And a smaller contribution from net exports should also be partially offset by the rebound in the construction sector, which could add half a percentage point to GDP growth this year."

Economists from ANZ firmly believe that the budget will reveal significant surpluses over the next four years. The question they then pose, however, is what will become of the extra money.

"With the RBA's forecasts signalling how sharply growth needs to slow to get inflation back under control, next week's Commonwealth Budget assumes critical importance," they wrote.

In the research note, the bank added the budget will be scrutinized to see if it will help take some of the "excess steam" out of the economy and help bring down concerns over sky-rocketing inflation.

"This is no easy task, given the Government's commitment to deliver personal income tax cuts totalling $31bn over the next four years," they said in their research notes.

Also of note, Japanese industrial production figures for March will be released on Friday. Expectations are for a 3.1% month-over-month decrease and a 0.4% yearly increase. Japanese machine tool orders and machine orders will also be released this week, on Monday and Wednesday respectively.

All times in EDT

Sunday: In Australia, National Australia Bank's business confidence for April will be released, last coming in at a reading of -4. The NAB business conditions survey, also to be released on Sunday, last came in at a reading of 7.

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds week ending 2-May Prior: -¥588.0B

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks week ending 2-May Prior: +¥301.3B

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks week ending 2-May Prior: +¥11.3B

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds week ending 2-May Prior: -¥34.6B

19:50 JN Money Supply M2+CD (Annualized) April Exp: +2.2% Prior: +2.2%

19:50 JN Broad Liquidity (Annualized) April +3.1% Prior: +3.1%

19:50 JN Bank Lending including Trusts (Annualized) April Exp: 1.2% Prior: +1.1%

19:50 JN Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (Annualized) April Prior: +1.2%

19:50 JN Bank Lending Banks Adjust (Annualized) April Prior: +1.7%

21:30 AU Home Loans March Exp: -0.8% Prior: -5.9%

21:30 AU Investment Lending March Prior: -9.5%

21:30 AU NAB Business Confidence April Prior: -4

21:30 AU NAB Business Conditions April Prior: 7

Monday: On Monday, markets will receive annualized Japanese machine tool orders for April. The indicator previously sustained a 3.3% increase.

0:30 JN Bankruptcies (Annualized) April Prior: +8.0%

1:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current April Prior: 36.9

1:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook April Prior: 38.2

2:00 JN Machine Tool Orders (Annualized) April Preliminary Prior: +3.3%

Tuesday: Japanese domestic CGPI for April will be released on Tuesday and is expected to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase, in line with its previous rise. Annually, it is expected to show a 3.6% increase, down from a previous 3.9% rise. In Australia, Westpac's consumer sentiment index is scheduled to be released, previously decreasing 1.3%. The Commonwealth budget is also poised to garner a lot of interest down under.

19:50 JN Loans & Discounts Corp (Annualized) March Prior: 0.0%

19:50 JN Domestic CGPI (Monthly) April Exp: +0.5% Prior: +0.5%

19:50 JN Domestic CGPI (Annualized) April Exp: +3.6% Prior: +3.9%

19:50 JN Current Account Total March Exp: ¥2810.0B Prior: ¥2467.7B

19:50 JN Adjusted Current Account Total March Exp: ¥1959.7B Prior: ¥1461.1B

19:50 JN Trade Balance - BOP Basis March Exp: ¥1233.0B Prior: ¥1035.3B

20:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence May Prior: -1.3%

21:30 AU Wage Cost Index (Quarterly) 1Q Exp: +1.1% Prior: +1.1%

21:30 AU Wage Cost Index (Annualized) 1Q Exp: +4.3% Prior: +4.2%

13-May AU Commonwealth Budget

Wednesday: The Australian consumer inflation expectation for May is expected to show an 11.2% incline. Aside from weekly investment data, Japanese markets will receive the country's machine orders for March. Month-over-month machine orders are expected to decrease 5.2%, up from a previous 12.7% decrease. Annualized machine orders are expected to increase 1.0%, down from a previous

2.4% increase.

19:50 JN Machine Orders (Monthly) March Exp: -5.2% Prior: -12.7%

19:50 JN Machine Orders (Annualized) March Exp: +1.0% Prior: 2.4%

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 9-May

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 9-May

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 9-May

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 9-May

20:30 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation May Prior: +11.2%

21:30 AU Average Weekly Wages (Quarterly) FEB Prior: +0.6%

21:30 AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction April Prior: A$295M

21:30 AU Average Weekly Wages (Annualized) FEB Prior: +4.7%

Thursday: Japanese GDP data will highlight Asian macroeconomic releases on Thursday. The first-quarter figure is expected to show a 0.6% increase, down from a previous 0.9% increase. The preliminary annualized GDP is expected to increase 2.5% after a previous 3.5% increase. In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak on the subject of "The Australian Economy: Then and Now" at the University of Sydney. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle is also scheduled to speak at the Flinders International Asia Pacific Institute in Adelaide.

0:00 JN Tokyo Condominium Sales (Annualized) April Prior: -17.8%

6:30 AU Reserve Bank Governor Stevens Speech in Sydney

19:50 JN Gross Domestic Product (Quarterly) 1Q Preliminary Exp: +0.6% Prior: +0.9%

19:50 JN GDP Annualized 1Q Preliminary Exp: +2.5% Prior: +3.5%

19:50 JN Nominal GDP (Quarterly) 1Q Preliminary Exp: +0.3% +0.2%

19:50 JN GDP Deflator (Annualized) 1Q Preliminary Exp: -1.5% Prior: -1.3%

15-May AU Reserve Bank Asst Governor Debelle Speech in Adelaide

Friday: Markets will receive Japanese industrial production data for March. Month-over-month industrial production is expected to show a 3.1% decrease, in line with the previous month's decrease. Japanese consumer confidence figures for April are scheduled to be released as well. The headline indicator last came in at a reading of 37.

0:30 JN Industrial Production (Monthly) March Final Exp: -3.1% Prior: -3.1%

0:30 JN Industrial Production (Annualized) March Final Prior: -0.4%

0:30 JN Capacity Utilization (Monthly) March Final Prior: +1.8%

1:00 JN Consumer Confidence April Prior: 37

1:00 JN Consumer Confidence Households April Prior: 36.7

2:00 JN Machine Tool Orders (Annualized) April Final

By Ryan Szporer, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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