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The Week Ahead Japan & Australia: Jn GDP, Australian Employment and Retail Sales Print E-mail
Asian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Sep 05 08 23:43 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Asian-Pacific markets will get a workout next week with a flurry of top-tier data releases due to come out. Australia's latest employment report and the latest Japanese GDP figures will lead the way.

On Wednesday, Australia's unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.4% for August, up from July's 4.3% rate. The country's labour market is meanwhile forecasted to have increased by 5.9k in the same month. Australian Retail sales data represent another significant release, due out on Monday. ANZ economist Alex Joiner anticipates a rebound in July from June's 0.1% drop.

"The [seasonally adjusted] figures will be more volatile than usual, making interpretation difficult," he qualified in a research note. "There have been a number of factors affecting retail spending in July. Tax cuts, an easing of petrol prices and colder weather should all support a bounce in spending following the very weak June report."

Japan's economy will be dependent on several high-profile releases, most notably the latest second-quarter GDP print. A -0.9% quarter-over-quarter revision is anticipated. Calyon chief Japanese economist Susumu Kato's forecast is slightly less harsh.

"For the Q2 GDP revision, we expect, based on our forecast that [capital expenditure] will be revised down, that real GDP would be revised down to -0.8% QOQ down from -0.6% QOQ in the advanced estimate," he wrote. "Even if discounting that fact that Q1 real GDP growth was exceptionally strong, the Q2 economic growth is yet weak."

Kato also points to the Liberal Democratic Party's election of a new prime minister (following Yasuo Fukuda's resignation) as potentially market-moving. The election will reportedly be officially announced on Sept. 10.

Machine tool orders and machine orders are also due for release on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Final July industrial production and capacity utilization figures are also scheduled for release at the end of the week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Glenn Stevens is also set to give his semi-annual testimony before the Australian parliament's House Economics Committee in Melbourne at the start of the week.

All times in EDT

Sunday:

The first event of the week is arguably one of the most important. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will testify before the Australian House Economics Committee.

19:00 AU Reserve Bank Governor Stevens Half-Yearly Testimony

19:50 JP Japan Money Stock M3 (Y/Y) August Exp: +0.9% Prior: +0.8%

19:50 JP Japan Money Stock M2 (Y/Y) August Exp: +2.1% Prior: +2.1%

19:50 JP Bank Lending Banks Adjust (Y/Y) August Prior: +2.5%

19:50 JP Bank Lending including Trusts(Y/Y) August Prior: +1.8%

19:50 JP Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (Y/Y) August Prior: +2.0%

21:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (M/M) August Prior: -0.3%

Monday:

Australia continues to be a market focus with the release of July retail sales figures. The report last showed a 1.0% monthly decrease. Both Australian and Japanese fourth-quarter Manpower surveys are also due out.

00:30 JP Bankruptcies (Y/Y) August Prior: +12.9%

10:01 AU Australia Manpower Survey Q4 Prior: +20%

11:01 JP Japan Manpower Survey Q4 Prior: +20%

21:30 AU NAB Business Confidence August Prior: -9

21:30 AU NAB Business Conditions August Prior: -5

21:30 AU Retail Sales Trend (M/M) July Prior: -1.0%

21:30 AU Home Loans July Exp: 0.0% Prior: -3.7%

21:30 AU Investment Lending July Prior: -0.3%

21:30 AU Value of Loans (M/M) July Prior: -1.1%

September 8 JP Eco Watchers Survey: Current August Prior: 29.3

September 8 JP Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook August Prior: 30.8

Tuesday:

Japan finally steals the spotlight away from Australia with August machine tool orders and CGPI reports. Machine tool orders last sustained an 8.9% annualized drop. Domestic CGPI is meanwhile expected to increase 7.2% year-over-year and come in flat month-over-month. Westpac's Australian consumer confidence measure for September is due out later in the day and will be looking to improve upon its previous 9.1% rise.

2:00 JP Machine Tool Orders (Y/Y) August Preliminary Prior: -8.9%

19:50 JP Domestic CGPI (M/M) August Exp: 0.0% Prior: +2.0%

19:50 JP Domestic CGPI (Y/Y) August Exp: +7.2% Prior: +7.1%

19:50 JP Current Account Total July Exp: ¥1317.2B Prior: ¥493.9B

19:50 JP Adjusted Current Account Total July Exp: ¥1350.0B Prior: ¥1290.7B

19:50 JP Trade Balance - BOP Basis July Exp: ¥233.1B Prior: ¥252.1B

20:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence September Prior: 9.1%

Wednesday:

Australia again takes centre stage in the Asia-Pacific with the release of its employment report. The headline unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4.4% in August, while the labour market is expected to have risen by 5.9k.

1:00 JP Leading Index CI July Preliminary Exp: 91.9 Prior: 91.3

1:00 JP Coincident Index CI July Preliminary Exp: 102.5 Prior: 101.6

19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E September 5 Prior: +¥439.4B

19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E September 5 Prior: +¥131.0B

19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E September 5 Prior: +¥0.5B

19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E September 5 Prior: -¥746.5B

19:50 JP Machine Orders (M/M) July Exp: -4.0% Prior: -2.6%

19:50 JP Machine Orders (Y/Y) July Exp: -4.9% Prior: +9.7%

21:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation SEP Prior: +4.9%

21:30 AU Employment Change August Exp: +5.9K Prior: +10.9K

21:30 AU Unemployment Rate August Exp: 4.4% Prior: 4.3%

21:30 AU Participation Rate August Exp: 65.3% Prior: 65.3%

Thursday:

The second print of second-quarter GDP is due out of Japan. The quarterly growth rate is expected to drop 0.9% from the previous 0.6% pullback. Year-over-year, the country's GDP is expected to fall 3.5% from a previously recorded 2.4% decrease.

19:50 JP Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) Q2 Final Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.6%

19:50 JP GDP Annualized Q2 Final Exp: -3.5% Prior: -2.4%

19:50 JP Nominal GDP (Q/Q) Q2 Final Exp: -1.1%

19:50 JP GDP Deflator (Y/Y) Q2 Final Exp: -1.6%

Friday:

Final Japanese industrial production figures for July represent the sole notable release on Friday. The indicator last showed a 0.9% month-over-month rise and a 2.0% year-over-year increase. Capacity utilization in the country last came in at -1.7%.

00:30 JP Industrial Production (M/M) July Final Prior: +0.9%

00:30 JP Industrial Production (Y/Y) July Final Prior: +2.0%

00:30 JP Capacity Utilization (M/M) July Final Prior: -1.7%

By Ryan Szporer, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , with contributions from Neils Christensen, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Sarah Sussman, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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