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The Week Ahead Japan & Australia: RBA Cash Rate Target, Australian GDP Print E-mail
Asian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Aug 29 08 22:50 GMT | 
(CEP News) - A flurry of economic data will be coming out of Australia next week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decision and the release of Australian GDP, trade balance and foreign reserves.

Turning to Japan, it will be a quiet week for releases. Sunday night will reveal the country's labor cash earnings. Labor cash earnings for July are expected to rise 0.3%, following a revised increase of 0.4%. Unemployment data released earlier this week revealed the Japanese unemployment rate fell to 4.0% from 4.1%.

Monday night will see Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa speak in Nagoya.

Shirakawa admitted in a speech earlier this week that Japan was facing a recessionary economy, but said a return to a moderate growth path would occur, though he could not say when.

Economists are unanimously predicting the Bank of Japan won't move on interest rates for some time this year, or even until 2009.

The bank is taking a "wait and see" stance, said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers.

Returning to Australia, the release of the RBA's September cash rate decision will be the highlight of the week. The release of the minutes from the RBA's meeting earlier in August had a dovish tone and had economists across the board predicting that the September 3 cash rate decision will reveal a rate cut.

Following the release of the minutes, Benjamin Reitzes of BMO Capital Markets said, "The minutes had a dovish tone as expected, making a rate cut in September all but a lock."

The current expectation amongst economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the bank's rate down from 7.25% to 7.00%.

Australian Second-quarter GDP will be released shortly afterwards. Economists expect an increase of 0.4% quarter-over-quarter. First-quarter GDP in Australia revealed an increase of 0.6%.

Wednesday night will see the release of the Australian Trade Balance for the month, expected to come in at a surplus of A$50 million. Last month's trade balance came in at a surplus of A$411 million despite the projected $100 million deficit. The surprise boost was attributed by economists to increased mining profits and soaring commodity prices.

The last major release expected from the RBA next week is Australian foreign reserves. In Australian dollar terms, the country's foreign reserve holdings increased to A$37.4 billion in July versus the A$35.9 billion reported in June.

All times in EDT:

Sunday:

Sunday will see the release of Australia's current account balance for the second quarter, expected to come in at $-11650 million. The prior quarter's reading was $-19492 million. Japan's labor cash earnings will be issued at the same time, expected to rise 0.3% against a previously revised increase of 0.4%.

19:30 AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index August Prior: 46.9

20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (M/M) August Prior: +0.4%

20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (Y/Y) August Prior: +4.6%

21:30 AU Current Account Balance Q2 Exp: -11650M Prior: -19492M

21:30 AU Company Operating Profit (Q/Q) Q2 Exp: 2.3% Prior: +2.2%

21:30 AU Inventories Q2 Exp: 0.6% Prior: +0.9%

21:30 JP Labor Cash Earnings (Y/Y) July Exp: 0.3% Prior: -0.6% Revised 0.4

Monday:

On Monday night, Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa will speak in Nagoya. Later in the evening, Australian building approvals for July will be released. Building approvals are expected to increase 0.5% month-over-month.

1:00 JP Vehicle Sales (Y/Y) August Prior: +5.4%

2:30 AU RBA Commodity Index SDR (Y/Y) August Prior: +41.1%

19:50 JP Monetary Base (Y/Y) August Prior: -0.7%

21:00 JP BOJ Governor Shirakawa to Speak in Nagoya

21:30 AU Building Approvals (M/M) July Exp: 0.5%

21:30 AU Building Approvals (Y/Y) July Exp: -6.4% Prior: -7.8%

Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision. Economists across the board are calling for the RBA to cut its rates to 7.00% from 7.25%. Much later in the day, quarterly and yearly Australian GDP will be released. Second-quarter GDP is expected to increase 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, following a previously recorded 0.6%.

0:30 AU Reserve Bank's September Interest Rate Decision Exp: 7.00% Prior: 7.25%

19:30 AU AiG Performance of Service Index August Prior: 42.8

21:30 AU Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) Q2 Exp: 0.4% Prior: +0.6%

21:30 AU Gross Domestic Product (Y/Y) Q2 Exp: 2.9% Prior: +3.6%

Wednesday:

Wednesday night will be quiet in the Asia-Pacific, with the weekly release of Japanese international security transactions and the issuance of the Australian trade balance, which surprised to the upside last month. The Australian trade balance is expected to come in at a surplus of A$50 million, following a previous surplus of A$411 million.

19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 29-Aug Prior: ¥557.9B

19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 29-Aug Prior: -¥214.5B

19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 29-Aug Prior: -¥82.8B

19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 29-Aug Prior: -1419.6

21:30 AU Trade Balance July Exp: A50M Prior: A411M

Thursday:

Thursday will be another quiet evening, with the AiG construction index for August due for release in Australia. In July, performance construction came in at a reading of 41.6.

19:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index August Prior: 41.6

19:50 JP Capital Spending Q2 Exp: 0.2% Prior: -4.9%

19:50 JP Capital Spending Excluding Software Q2 Exp: -1.0% Prior: -5.3%

Friday:

The sole data expected on Friday night is the RBA release of Australian foreign reserves, which last came in at $37.4 billion.

2:30 AU Foreign Reserves August Prior: 37.4B

By Megan Ainscow, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Sarah Sussman, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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