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The Week Ahead Japan & Australia: RBA Interest Rate Decision, Aussie Employment Print E-mail
Asian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  May 02 08 22:31 GMT | 
(CEP News) Montreal - It will be a busy week in Australia with the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and the employment report to be released. As well, markets will receive Australian housing data and trade data. In Japan, markets will receive March's leading economic index and coincident index.

Tuesday's focus will be the central bank decision. Economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold their interest rate at 7.25%.

Economists from Westpac wrote in their weekly research notes that they expect the bank to remain on the sidelines because of rising inflation.

"The sharp rise in interest rates since last July is likely to be sufficient to significantly moderate the pace of economic activity," said Westpac. "Confidence has been jolted, consumer spending has softened and dwelling approvals have declined over recent months in response to the 1.4% rise in variable mortgage rates to 9.45%. The expectation is that inflation will - in time - move back within the target band, as a lagged response to more subdued domestic and global economic conditions."

The second major data point of the week will be the employment report, with the consensus forecast for 10,000 new jobs created in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

Warren Hogan of ANZ bank wrote in a note to clients that although employment has remained strong, they are expecting to see more volatility in the labour market.

"The Australian economy has been adding jobs at a pace of over 25k a month for the past six months, which is historically very strong," he wrote. "We expect this to slow to around 10k-15k a month by the end of the year."

All times in EST

Sunday:

Markets will focus on Australian housing data with the release of the first-quarter house price index, which is expected to remain unchanged following a rise of 3.2% in fourth-quarter of 2007. The annualized rate is expected to rise 11.0% following the prior increase of 12.3%.

Australian TD Securities inflation data for March is expected to be released. According to the bank's statistics, inflation rose 0.4% in March. The annualized rate rose 4.0% in March.

19:30 AU AiG Performance of Service Index April Prior: 53.8

20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (Monthly) April Prior: +0.4%

20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (Annualized) April Prior: +4.0%

21:30 AU House Price Index (Quarterly) Q1 Exp: Unchanged Prior: +3.2%

21:30 AU House Price Index (Annualized) Q1 Exp: +11.0% Prior: +12.3%

21:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (Monthly) April Prior: -0.7%

Monday:

Markets will receive Australian trade data for March. The trade balance is expected to show a deficit of A$2.900 billion following February's deficit of $3.389 billion. In February, Australian exports declined 4.1% and imports fell 0.2%.

5- 2 May JN BOJ Deputy Governor Nishimura Will Attend ADB Meeting

21:30 AU Trade Balance March Exp: -2900M Prior: -3289M

21:30 AU Exports (Monthly) March Prior: -4.1%

21:30 AU Imports (Monthly) March Prior: -0.2%

Tuesday: All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, which economists expect to remain at 7.25%.

Newly appointed Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will attend the bimonthly meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

0:30 AU Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Target 7-May Exp: 7.25% Prior: 7.25%

19:30 AU AiG Performance of Construction Index April Prior: 48.4

6- 2 May JN BOJ Governor Shirakawa Will Attend BIS Meeting in Basel

Wednesday:

It's another important day in Australia, with markets receiving employment data for April. The consensus is that 10,000 jobs were created in the month. The employment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% and the participation rate is also expected to remain steady at 65.2%.

2:30 AU Foreign Reserves April Prior: A$36.3B

21:30 AU Employment Change April Exp: 10.0K Prior: 14.8K

21:30 AU Unemployment Rate April Exp: 4.1% Prior: 4.1%

21:30 AU Participation Rate April Exp: 65.2% Prior: 65.2%

Thursday:

Along with weekly Japan investment data, markets will also receive the RBA quarterly monetary policy statement.

19:50 JN Official Reserve Assets April Prior: $1015.6B

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 2-May Prior: ¥301.3B

19:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 2-May Prior: -¥588.0B

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 2-May Prior: ¥11.3B

19:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 2-May Prior: -¥34.6B

21:30 AU Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

Friday: The week ends with the Japan leading economic index for March, which is expected to rise 20.0% following a 54.5% rise in February.

The preliminary reading of the Japanese coincident index for March will also be released and economists forecast a rise of 33.3% following February's increase of 70.0%.

1:00 JN Leading Economic Index March Preliminary Exp: +20.0% Prior: +54.5%

1:00 JN Coincident Index March Preliminary Exp: +33.3% Prior: +70.0%

By Neils Christensen, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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