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(CEP News) - There are several major reports due out in the Asia Pacific tonight, with the release of Australia's jobless report, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's cash rate, and final Japanese fourth-quarter GDP results.
Australia's economy has held up remarkably well in the face of the global downturn, and the labour market has been no exception. The country's 4.8% unemployment rate is much lower than in the United States and the United Kingdom. However, economists say February will show that even Australia is not immune to the effects of the economic downturn troubling its trading partners. They expect the unemployment rate to climb to 5.0%, and for the economy to shed 20,000 jobs. "[A]t [the] risk of sounding like a broken record, labour market conditions are due for a correction, consistent with weakening economic growth, overwhelming weakness in survey measures of labour demand and increased reports of job shedding," ANZ Bank economist Riki Polygenis said. In New Zealand, there is much uncertainty over how large the expected cash rate cut will be. The consensus is for a 50 basis point cut to 3.00%. Markets are fully priced in for a 50 basis point cut and 60% priced in for a steeper 75 basis point cut. Economists at Barclays Capital said the rate cut could cause the New Zealand dollar to outperform the Australian dollar, but will not be strong enough to erase U.S. dollar gains against the Kiwi. In Japan, final fourth-quarter gross domestic product is expected to be revised down to a 3.5% contraction against the preliminary -3.3% result. Akira Maekawa, economist at UBS, said worse-than-expected fourth-quarter capital investment and inventories will drag down the final number. All times in EDT. Wednesday: 16:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Exp: 3.00% Prior: 3.50% 17:30 NZ Business NZ PMI February Prior: +42 17:45 NZ Food Prices (M/M) February Prior: +0.8% 19:50 JP Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) Q4 Final Exp: -3.5% Prior: -3.3% 19:50 JP GDP Annualized Q4 Final Exp: -13.4% Prior: -12.7% 19:50 JP Nominal GDP (Q/Q) Q4 Final Exp: -1.7% Prior: -1.7% 19:50 JP GDP Deflator (Y/Y) Q4 Final Exp: +0.9% Prior: +0.9% 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E March 6 Prior: +¥243.3B 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E March 6 Prior: -¥156.9B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E March 6 Prior: +¥76.7B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E March 6 Prior: +¥312.0B 20:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation March Prior: +2.3% 20:30 AU Employment Change February Exp: -20.0K Prior: +1.2K 20:30 AU Unemployment Rate February Exp: 5.0% Prior: 4.8% 20:30 AU Participation Rate February Exp: 65.0% Prior: 65.1% 22:00 CN Retail Sales (Y/Y) February Exp: +17.0% Prior: +21.6% 22:00 CN Industrial Production (Y/Y) February Prior: +5.7% By Megan Ainscow,
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