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(CEP News) - Monday will be very important day in Asia Pacific markets as the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy boards meet to make their latest interest rate decisions.
Forecasts are for calling for the BOJ to hold rates at 0.50%. Akira Maekawa, economist with UBS, said rates will stay on hold well into 2009, predicting that negative growth will wane after the first two quarters, "even in the current gloomier global economy." Japan's Economic and Social Research Institute will also publish the leading and coincident index for August. Economists expect the leading index to come in at 89.2, a decrease from the prior month's 91.4 level. The coincident index is forecast to come in at 100.7, a drop from last month's 103.5 reading. As the credit crisis abroad has now made its way to Australian shores, the consensus is for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 50 bps. Strategists at ANZ said the tumultuous events overseas have triggered a tightening of credit conditions at home, which require the RBA to react with a 50bp cut. "The significant downside risks now facing the global economy - and the risks that poses to Australia - suggest that such a tight setting of local monetary policy is no longer appropriate," they said. Economists at Capital Economics pointed to recent data out of Australia that suggest the overall economy is weakening and is in need of the sharp cut. They said that while some indicators such as terms of trade and retail sales remain positive, "the undeniable fact is that Australia's terms of trade will deteriorate and export earnings will suffer over the course of next year," they added. In addition, markets will be interested to see if the AIG Performance of Construction Index for Australia improves for a fourth consecutive month. In August, the index scored a reading of 43.1 following July's 41.6 level. In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Opinion Survey will release third-quarter data. The prior survey came in at a reading of -64. Monday JP Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Exp: 0.50% Prior: 0.50% 17:00 NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey 3Q Prior: -64 18:30 AU AiG Performance of Construction Index September Prior: +43.1 19:50 JP Official Reserve Assets September Prior: +$996.7B 23:30 AU Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision Exp: 6.50% Prior: 7.00% Tuesday 1:00 JP Leading Index CI August Preliminary Exp: +89.2 Prior: +91.4 1:00 JP Coincident Index CI August Preliminary Exp: +100.7 Prior: +103.5 By Steve Stecyk,
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, edited by Nancy Girgis,
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