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The Day Ahead Canada & U.S.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate Print E-mail
Canadian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Jul 02 08 22:44 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Employment data will dominate the markets news as U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, unemployment and initial jobless claims will released on Thursday.

The main focus is nonfarm payrolls for June. The economy continues to shed jobs and economists expect another decline of 60,000 jobs in June, compared to a loss of 49,000 jobs in May.

Economists from BBVA expect non-farm payroll numbers to drop further than the anticipated 60k decline.

"We do expect that nonfarm payrolls data has further decreased in June, with even larger losses than observed the previous month ,-85 thousand for June compared to -49 thousand in May," wrote BBVA in their notes.

Economists at Lehman Brothers forecast that the decline in non-farm payroll will not be as significant as predicted.

"Labour market conditions likely remained broadly unchanged in June after May's substantial deterioration. We look for nonfarm payroll employment to have fallen by 50,000, with weakness concentrated in construction, manufacturing and retail. Gains in service-sector components - except financial services - should partially offset these losses. There are likely downside risks to this forecast, but labor market data available for the month so far - including initial and continuing jobless claims, tax receipts and survey-based measures - do not (yet) appear consistent with deeper job losses."

The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.4% in June from April's 5.5%.

"Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to edge higher, but not so steeply as to point to a severe drop in employment. The unemployment rate, which leaped to 5.5% in May from 5.0% in April, has probably overshot, and we expect it to ease to 5.4% this month. But the trend in the unemployment rate remains clearly upwards," wrote economists from Global Insight.

The ISM non-manufacturing index for June will also be released and economists forecast a drop in the survey to a level of 51, down from May's reading of 51.7.

Economists at BBVA forecast the ISM non-manufacturing index for June to hang in above the 50 mark.

"Despite a huge reduction in January, this variable has kept above the 50 point benchmark. But there have been initial signs that services are starting to feel the effects of the downturn at a more structural level. We do expect non-manufacturing ISM to suffer as a result, but we do not expect it to cross the 50 point barrier. Services still constitute a pillar for the US economy, closely watched by the Fed, and one of the few resilient sectors during the current downturn," wrote BBVA.

All times in EDT

8:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls June Exp: -60k Prior: -49k

8:30 US Unemployment Rate June Exp: 5.4% Prior: 5.5%

8:30 US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls June Exp: -30K Prior: -26K

8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) June Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.3%

8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) June Exp: +3.4% Prior: +3.5%

8:30 US Average Weekly Hours June Exp: 33.7 Prior: 33.7

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E June 28 Exp: +385K Prior: +384K

8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E June 21 Exp:3125K Prior: 3139K

10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite June Exp: 51.0 Prior: 51.7

10:00 US TSY Assistant Secretary Swagel speaks at monthly press briefing

10:00 CA Commodity Price Index

10:35 US EIA Natural Gas storage Change W/E June 27 Exp: 88 Prior: 90

16:30 US M1 and M2 money supply

By Steve Stecyk, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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