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(CEP News) - Markets will focus on employment and manufacturing data on Wednesday with the release of the ADP employment report and ISM manufacturing, both for September.
Economists expect the ADP employment report for September to show a decline of 50k jobs, an improvement over the prior month's 33k job loss. Economists remain unconvinced about the ADP report's ability to accurately forecast unemployment data. "In each of the last ten months, the ADP estimate has overshot the BLS figure, with misses ranging from 12,000 to 129,000," economists at JPMorgan wrote. "The average miss during that period was 80,000. Perhaps the most useful forecasting aspect of the ADP report is that it now seems to be providing an upper bound for the official estimate." The ISM manufacturing survey for September is expected to slip to a reading of 49.5 from the last month's 49.9 reading. TD Securities economic strategist Millan Mulraine expects ISM manufacturing to stay below the 50 level in the coming months. "Looking ahead, with durable goods orders posting a massive 4.5% M/M drop in August, we expect manufacturing sector activity to remain weak in September, as the pipeline of orders is clearly weak," Mulraine wrote. "As such, we not only expect the ISM manufacturing index to be below 50 in September, but remain there for quite some time." Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending is expected to remain in negative territory in August with a -0.5% reading, a slight improvement from July's 0.6% decline. Markets are still keeping a close eye on oil and gasoline inventories. The U.S. Department of Energy is forecasting crude oil inventories to rise by 2750k barrels, up from the previous week's 1520k barrel decline. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories are expected to fall by 2050k barrels, a smaller decline than last week's 5895K barrel drop. 7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E 26-September Prior: -10.6% 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts (Y/Y) September Prior: +11.7% 8:15 US ADP Employment Change September Exp: -50K Prior: -33K 10:00 CA Bank of Canada will conduct $4 Billion 28 Day Term PRA Auction 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing September Exp: +49.5 Prior: +49.9 10:00 US Construction Spending (M/M) August Exp: - 0.5% Prior: -0.6% 10:00 US ISM Prices Paid September Exp: +73.0 Prior: +77.0 10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E 26-September Exp: +2750K Prior: -1520K 10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E 26-September Exp: -2050K Prior: -5895K 10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E 26-September Exp:-1500K Prior: -4176K 10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E 26-September Exp: +5.50% Prior: -10.7% 10:35 US API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E 26-September Prior: -91K 10:35 US API U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E 26-September Prior: -2135K 10:35 US API U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E 26-September Prior: -1719K 11:30 US U.S. Treasury to Sell $50 Billion in 42-Day Cash Management Bills 12:00 CA Bank of Canada will auction $2.5 Billion in Nominal Bonds 12:20 CA Bank of Canada will repurchase $400 Million in Securities 10/01 US Domestic Vehicle Sales September Exp: +10.2M Prior: +10.4M 10/01 US Total Vehicle Sales September Exp: +13.5M Prior: +13.7M By Steve Stecyk,
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, edited by Nancy Girgis,
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