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(CEP News) - Economists will be focusing on the upcoming European Commission (EC)'s economic sentiment survey for confirmation that the worst of the euro zone recession is over and that the rate of economic decline will slow in the second quarter.
"One of the key indicators for [Wednesday] will be the EC surveys, given that we've seen some signs of improvement from the other surveys lately," Capital Economics European economist Jennifer McKeown said, noting the upside surprise in the German PMIs, the ZEW and the Ifo. "We'll be looking at those EC surveys to see if they confirm that picture, that the rate of economic contraction has slowed in the second quarter, which would be a welcome sign." Ahead of the release, scheduled for early Wednesday morning Eastern time, expectations are for the economic confidence indicator to rise a full point to 65.6 in April from March's record low level. The improvement is expected to be widespread, with the consumer confidence component forecast to rise modestly to -33 in April from -34, and the industrial confidence component expected to jump to -36, up two points from its level in March. Furthermore, expectations are for the services sub-indicator to improve to -24 from -25 previously. However, McKeown added that, while there is the possibility that economic sentiment comes in stronger than expected, the deteriorating labour market could drag down the consumer sentiment component, therefore limiting potential improvements in overall confidence. "Also, the EC surveys have tended to lag behind the PMIs more than in the past," the economist said. "This is another reason to think that (sentiment) might not pick up as much." Regarding speakers for Wednesday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jürgen Stark is scheduled to deliver a speech in Siegen, Germany. Meanwhile, ECB member Yves Mersch will present a financial stability report at the Central Bank of Luxembourg. All times in EDT. 4:00 IT Hourly Wages (M/M) March Exp: +0.0% Prior: +0.3% 4:00 IT Hourly Wages (Y/Y) March Exp: +3.5% Prior: +3.5% 4:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 (Y/Y) (SA) March Exp: +5.7% Prior: +5.9% 4:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 3-month Average (SA) March Exp: +5.9% Prior: +6.5% 5:00 EU Business Climate Indicator April Exp: -3.53 Prior: -3.58 5:00 EU Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence April Exp: -33 Prior: -34 5:00 EU Euro-Zone Economic Confidence April Exp: +65.6 Prior: +64.6 5:00 EU Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence April Exp: -36 Prior: -38 5:00 EU Euro-zone Services Confidence April Exp: -24 Prior: -25 11:30 DE ECB's Stark Speaks in Siegen, Germany 19:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Survey April Exp: -28 Prior: -30 April 29 EU ECB's Mersch Presents Financial Stability Report April 27-30 GB Nationwide House prices (M/M) (SA) April Exp: -1.2% Prior: +0.9% April 27-30 GB Nationwide House prices (Y/Y) (NSA) April Exp: -15.8% Prior: -15.7% By Todd Wailoo,
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; edited by Nick Say,
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