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The Day Ahead Europe & UK: German PPI, Italian Industrial Orders, Euro Zone Trade Balance Print E-mail
Canadian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Jul 17 08 22:25 GMT | 
(CEP News) - The end of the week will see data on German producer price inflation for June. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown in the PPI growth rate to 0.8% following the 1.0% rise observed in May. Conversely, the consensus forecast is calling for the annualized increase to jump to 6.6% in June from May's 6.0% gain.

Italian industrial orders data will also be published on Friday. Orders are expected to have fallen 0.6% in May on a monthly basis after rising 1.2% in the previous month. Year-over-year, industrial order growth is projected to have slowed to 0.1%, down significantly from May's annualized growth rate of 12.8%.

Eurostat is scheduled to release data on the euro zone trade balance for May. The consensus forecast is calling for the trade balance to show a deficit of €1.0 billion after registering a €2.3 billion surplus. In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade surplus is expected to fall to €0.8 billion from the €2.2 billion recorded in the previous month.

Jennifer McKeon, economist from Capital Economics, forecasts that exports will slow and imports will rise, resulting in a record trade balance. "The latest data from Germany and France suggest that export values contracted sharply in May, returning the euro-zone trade balance to deficit. In April, the euro-trade balance swung from a €1.1bn deficit to a €2.2bn surplus, after exports expanded by a whopping 6.2%. But steep falls in German and French export values suggest that euro-zone exports will have lost some of April's gains in May. This, coupled with a modest rise in imports, should lead the region's trade balance to record a deficit of around €2.0bn. Looking ahead, surveys of export orders point to a renewed slowdown in export growth. And with energy prices continuing to boost import price inflation, we expect the trade balance to remain in deficit over the coming months," wrote McKeown.

UK public sector net borrowing in June is expected come in at to £7.4B. Jonathan Loynes from Capital Economics expects public borrowing to come in below consensus. "We don't expect such a poor outcome, not least because the downturn in the economy is likely to have a bigger effect on borrowing next year, given the normal lags. Nonetheless, more poor figures over the coming months would make us more pessimistic about this year too. In June, we expect a PSNB total of about £7B," said Loynes.

Finally, Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi and Central Bank of Ireland Governor John Hurley will speak at an event in Dublin, Ireland.

All times in EDT

2:00 DE Producer Prices (M/M) June: +0.7% Prior: +1.0%

2:00 DE Producer Prices (Y/Y) June:+ 6.5% Prior: +6.0%

4:00 IT Industrial Orders (M/M) (SA) May Exp: -1.5% Prior: +1.2%

4:00 IT Industrial Orders (Y/Y) (NSA) May Exp: +0.1% Prior: +12.8%

4:00 IT Industrial Sales (M/M) (SA) May Exp: -0.6% Prior: +2.2%

4:00 IT Industrial Sales (Y/Y) (NSA) May Prior: +13.9%

4:05 GB BOE Gieves Speaks at Stock Exchange

4:30 GB Public Finances (PSNCR) June Exp:+ £12.6B Prior: +£11.0B

4:30 GB Public Sector Net Borrowing June Exp: +£7.4B Prior: +£11.0B

4:30 GB M4 Money Supply (M/M) June Preliminary Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.4%

4:30 GB M4 Money Supply (Y/Y) June Preliminary Exp: +9.7% Prior: +10.0%

4:30 GB M4 Sterling Lending June Preliminary:+ £10.0B Prior:+ £4.8B

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance May Exp: -€1.0B Prior: €2.3B

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance (SA) May Exp: +€0.8B Prior:+ €2.2B

7:30 EU EUB's Draghi, Hurley Speak at Event in Dublin

July -18 PT Bank of Portugal Releases Monthly Economic Indicators Report

By Steve Stecyk, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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