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The Day Ahead Europe and UK: German and UK Industrial Production, UK PPI Print E-mail
Canadian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Jan 08 09 21:41 GMT | 
(CEP News)- With the ECB interest rate meeting a week away, markets will be interested to see how industrial production and inflation are faring in the Euro zone.

Following a steep drop in German factory orders on Wednesday, economists are expecting industrial production to follow suit. Current expectations are for German industrial production to fall 2.0% month-over-month and 5.7% annually.

"We think we will see a deep contraction in industrial production in November," WGZ-Bank analyst Andreas Möller said, forecasting output will shrink by 3.0% month-over-month.

French industrial production is also set for release. Production is forecast to fall 0.8% month-over-month compared to the prior month's 2.7% decline. On a yearly basis, the figure is projected to fall 5.8% after the prior month 7.2% decline.

Also in France, the Finance ministry will publish its trade balance for November. Economists are expecting the trade deficit to narrow to €6.5 billion from the previous €7.1 billion deficit.

Earlier this week, the Office for National Statistics reported that UK inflation is falling, coming in at 4.1% in November, down from October's 4.5% rate. The UK Producer price index for December should attest to that. The expectations are for input prices to come down 2.0% from the prior month and rise 3.0% from the previous year. Output prices are expected to drop 0.6% month-over-month and by 4.0% year-over-year.

UK industrial and manufacturing production is also poised to decline in November. The consensus is calling for industrial production to fall 0.5% from the previous month and 5.3% from the prior year. Manufacturing production is also expected to drop, by 0.6% month-over-month and 5.2% year-over-year.

Finally, retail sales in the Euro Zone are forecast to remain flat in November compared to the prior month's 0.8% drop. Annually, retail sales are expected to decline 1.7%, a slight bounce after the prior month's 2.1% decline.

All times in EST

2:00 GE Retail Sales M/M NOV Exp: +0.5% Prior: -1.6%

2:00 GE Retail Sales Y/Y NOV Exp: 0.0% Prior: -1.5%

2:45 FR Industrial Production M/M NOV Exp: -0.8% Prior: -2.7%

2:45 FR Industrial Production Y/Y NOV Exp: -5.8% Prior: -7.2%

2:45 FR Manufacturing Production M/M NOV Exp: -0.4% Prior: -3.2%

2:45 FR Manufacturing Production Y/Y NOV Exp: -6.6% Prior: -8.4%

2:45 FR Trade Balance NOV Exp: -€6.5B Prior: -€7.1B

3:00 EU ECB's Trichet Speaks At Panel Discussion In Paris

4:00 IT Deficit to GDP YTD 3Q Prior: +2.6%

4:30 UK PPI Input NSA M/M DEC Exp: -2.0% Prior: -3.3%

4:30 UK PPI Input NSA Y/Y DEC Exp: +3.0% Prior: +7.5%

4:30 UK PPI Output NSA M/M DEC Exp: -0.6% Prior: -0.7%

4:30 UK PPI Output NSA Y/Y DEC Exp: +4.0% Prior: +5.1%

4:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA M/M DEC Exp: -0.2% Prior: +0.2%

4:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA Y/Y DEC Exp: +4.7% Prior: +5.1%

4:30 UK Industrial Production M/M NOV Exp: -0.5% Prior: -1.7%

4:30 UK Industrial Production Y/Y NOV Exp: -5.3% Prior: -5.2%

4:30 UK Manufacturing Production M/M NOV Exp: -0.6% Prior: -1.4%

4:30 UK Manufacturing Production Y/Y NOV Exp: -5.2% Prior: -4.9%

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales M/M NOV Exp: 0.0% Prior: -0.8%

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales Y/Y NOV Exp: -1.7% Prior: -2.1%

6:00 GE Industrial Production Y/Y (NSA) NOV Exp: -5.7% Prior: -3.8%

6:00 GE Industrial Production M/M SA NOV Exp: -2.0% Prior: -2.1%

By Steve Stecyk, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Megan Ainscow, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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