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(CEP News) - Markets will receive several key data releases to end the week on Thursday, including Canada's Labour Force Survey, the U.S. trade balance and weekly U.S. jobless claims.
Canada's economy is expected to lose 50,000 jobs and see the unemployment rate tick up three-tenths to 8.0% - the highest level in almost eight years. Krishen Rangasamy, an economist at CIBC World Markets, said the market has already priced in a terrible report, and probably won't react much to the release. Strategists at TD Securities conceded the report could set off a small rally in USD/CAD or a rally in bond markets. However, any burst of activity will be short-lived, they said, with U.S. economic data dominating market sentiment. The U.S. trade balance for February is forecast to remain unchanged at a deficit of $36 billion. The trade deficit in the United States has been shrinking since the summer of 2008, as the cost of importing energy and overall domestic demand for goods has been declining amid the recession. "Since July, US domestic weakness has trumped softer overseas demand, pushing the US trade deficit consistently lower," CIBC World Markets economist Meny Grauman said. Grauman said that in the absence of other top-tier data, a better-than-expected trade balance result could be a positive for equities. Turning to the U.S. labour market, U.S. weekly jobless claims are expected to fall to 660k from 669k for the week ending April 4. Claim levels remain near record highs and have not fallen below the 600k mark since the end of January. All times in EDT. 7:00 CA Unemployment Rate March Exp: 8.0% Prior: 7.7% 7:00 CA Net Change in Employment March Exp: -50.0K Prior:-82.6K 8:30 CA New Housing Price Index (M/M) February Exp: -0.5% Prior:-0.6% 8:30 CA International Merchandise Trade February Exp: -$1.2B Prior:-$1.0B 8:30 US Trade Balance February Exp: -$36.0B Prior:-$36.0B 8:30 US Import Price Index (M/M) March Exp: +0.9% Prior:-0.2% 8:30 US Import Price Index (Y/Y) March Exp: -14.7% Prior:-12.8% 8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E April 4 Exp: +660K Prior: +669K 8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E March 28 Exp: +5800K Prior: +5728K 10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E April 3 Exp: 12 Prior: +0 12:15 US Fed's Stern Speaks at an event in Sioux Falls, South Dakota 13:00 US Fed's Hoenig Speaks at an event in Tulsa, Oklahoma 13:00 US Treasury to Sell $18B 10-Year Notes Reopening April US ICSC Chain Store Sales (Y/Y) March Exp: -0.8% Prior:-0.1% By Megan Ainscow,
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