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(CEP News) - Market participants will be awaiting the release of the U.S. ADP employment report on Wednesday. The report precedes the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics later this week.
The predictive ability of the ADP employment report to accurately foretell nonfarm payroll figures has been questioned. This may change this month following an announcement made by ADP stating that they have revised their methodology to be more consistent with the BLS nonfarm payrolls report. The consensus is looking for the ADP employment report to reveal a loss of 493K jobs. David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, said this week's ADP employment report could have more bearing on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. He is looking for a decline of 480,000 jobs. "Recent changes in methodology could bring the ADP data into closer alignment with the BLS estimates and make this a more important early indicator of job market developments," he said. Given the current turmoil in the Middle East, oil traders will be closely watching energy inventories tomorrow. Economists are expecting a 900k increase in crude oil reserves following the previous 549k gain. Gasoline inventories are expected to rise 1000k following the previous 808k build. Distillate inventories are expected to increase by 875k barrels after rising 694k in the previous week. Refinery utilization is expected to expand 0.30% after dropping 2.22% in the previous week. Market participants will also look at U.S. mortgage applications for any hint of recovery in the housing sector. Mortgage applications came in flat in the prior week. Markets will be interested to hear what U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will say about Fannie and Freddie and the housing recovery, as credit markets remain frozen and housing prices are in a free fall. In terms of Fed speakers, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig will discuss his outlook on the U.S. economy. All times in EST. 7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +0.0% 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y DEC Prior: +148.4% 8:15 US ADP Employment Change DEC Exp: -493K Prior: -250K Revised: -472K 10:30 US DOE US Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Exp: 900K Prior: +549K 10:30 US DOE US Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Exp: 1000K Prior: +808K 10:30 US DOE US Distillate Inventory Week Ending 2-Jan Exp: 875K Prior: +694K 10:30 US DOE US Refinery Utilization Week Ending 2-Jan Exp: 0.30% Prior: -2.22% 10:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 2 Week Ending -Jan Prior: -541K 10:30 US API US Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +7942K 10:30 US API US Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +1848K 10:30 US API US Distillate Inventory Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +3852K 11:30US US to Sell $35 Billion in 70-Day Cash Management Bills 12:00 US Treasury's Paulson will Speak on GSE's, and Housing Recovery 13:00 US Fed's Hoenig Speaks in Kansas City on U.S. Economic Outlook 13:00 US to Sell $30 billion in 3-Year Notes By Steve Stecyk,
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, edited by Sarah Sussman,
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