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(CEP News) Asia-Pacific markets are expected to react to outside factors such as stimulus plans and U.S. corporate earnings next week amid a light economic data schedule.
The major release out of the region will be Chinese first quarter GDP on Thursday (Wednesday night EDT). First quarter GDP is expected to climb 5.9%, following a 6.8% increase in the previous quarter. Economists at DBS are optimistic that economic growth will surprise to the upside. Persistent improvements in manufacturing PMIs are pointing to an even better 6.5% increase, they said. However any rise in economic growth will be low compared to previous years. Chinese GDP has been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2007 when economic growth hit a peak of 11.5%. DBS economists said China needs to create a sustainable program for domestically-driven growth to remain competitive. Amber Rabinov, strategist with ANZ Bank, said Chinas GDP results, along with U.S. retail sales, housing starts and the Feds Beige Book will be some of the major movers of currency markets this week. Its also earnings season in the U.S., Rabinov said, adding, Any worse-than-expected numbers could weigh on equity markets, and, in turn, the AUD/USD. The Aussie dollar has traded above 70 U.S. cents all week, but Rabinov expects the currency to fall below this level next week. The prospect of dismal news dominating forecasts could provide some support to Australian interest rate markets. Warren Hogan, head of interest rates research at ANZ Bank, said he is expecting bonds to rally through most of next week. The weaker than expected Australian employment report, released April 9 (April 8 EDT), provides more risks to the domestic economy he said and could "cap the rise in market rates." Australias unemployment rate climbed half a percent to 5.7% this week, against forecasts for a 5.4% result. The sole major release next week is the National Australia Bank measure of business confidence for March. In Japan, the only major releases will be final industrial production figures for February, and the corporate goods prices index for March, which is expected to continue its deflationary trend. All times in EDT: Sunday April 12-14 NZ Business NZ PMI March Prior: +38.6 April 12-13 CN Trade Balance (USD) March Exp: +$12.10B Prior: +$4.84B April 12-13 CN Exports (Y/Y) March Exp: -20.0% Prior: -25.7% April 12-13 CN Imports (Y/Y) March Exp: -22.0% Prior: -24.1% April 12-13 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03 Monday 18:45 NZ Retail Sales (M/M) February Exp: -0.5% Prior: -1.1% 18:45 NZ Retail Sales Ex-Auto (M/M) February Exp: -0.1% Prior: +0.3% 21:30 AU NAB Business Confidence March Prior: -22 21:30 AU NAB Business Conditions March Prior: -20 April 12-14 NZ Business NZ PMI March Prior: +38.6 April 12-13 CN Trade Balance (USD) March Exp: +$12.10B Prior: +$4.84B April 12-13 CN Exports (Y/Y) March Exp: -20.0% Prior: -25.7% April 12-13 CN Imports (Y/Y) March Exp: -22.0% Prior: -24.1% April 12-13 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03 Tuesday 19:15 AU RBA Head of Financial Stability Ellis Speaks in Melbourne 20:30 AU Westpac Leading Index (M/M) February Prior: -0.2% April 14-29 AU NAB Business Confidence Q1 Prior: -42 April 13-17 JP Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report April 12-14 NZ Business NZ PMI March Prior: +38.6 Wednesday 00:00 JP Tokyo Condominium Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -27.5% 00:30 JP Industrial Production (M/M) February Final Prior: -9.4% 00:30 JP Industrial Production (Y/Y) February Final Prior: -38.4% 00:30 JP Capacity Utilization (M/M) February Final Prior: -12.9% 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E April 10 Prior: +88.3B 19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E April 10 Prior: +44.7B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E April 10 Prior: +74.7B 19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E April 10 Prior: -2114.7 21:30 AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions March Prior: +229M 22:00 CN Real GDP (Y/Y) Q1 Exp: +5.9% Prior: +6.8% 22:00 CN Producer Price Index (Y/Y) March Exp: -5.6% Prior: -4.5% 22:00 CN Purchasing Price Index (Y/Y) March Prior: -7.1% 22:00 CN Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) March Exp: -1.3% Prior: -1.6% 22:00 CN Retail Sales (Y/Y) March Exp: +14.5% 22:00 CN Retail Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: +15.2% 22:00 CN Industrial Production (Y/Y) March Exp: +6.0% Prior: +11.0% 22:00 CN Industrial Production (Y/Y) March Prior: +3.8% 22:00 CN Fixed Assets Inv Urban (Y/Y) March Exp: +26.0% Prior: +26.5% April CN Actual FDI YTD (Y/Y) March Prior: -26.23% April 15-21 JP Nationwide Dept. Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -11.5% April 15-21 CN Wholesale Prices (Y/Y) March Prior: -6.0% April 13-17 JP Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report April 14-29 AU NAB Business Confidence Q1 Prior: -42 Thursday 2:00 JP Machine Tool Orders (Y/Y) March Final Prior: -84.5% 18:45 NZ Food Prices (M/M) March Prior: +0.2% 18:45 NZ Consumer Prices (Q/Q) Q1 Exp: +0.3% Prior: -0.5% 18:45 NZ Consumer Prices (Y/Y) Q1 Exp: +3.0% Prior: +3.4% 19:50 JP Tertiary Industry Index (M/M) February Exp: -0.6% Prior: +0.4% 20:30 JP BOJ to Hold Quarterly Branch Managers' Meeting 21:30 AU Import price index (Q/Q) Q1 Prior: +10.8% 21:30 AU Export price index (Q/Q) Q1 Prior: +15.9% 23:00 JP ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet Speaks in Tokyo 23:00 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings March Prior: +74.3% April 16-21 JP Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -11.7% April 15-21 JP Nationwide Dept. Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -11.5% April 15-21 CN Wholesale Prices (Y/Y) March Prior: -6.0% April 13-17 JP Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report April 14-29 AU NAB Business Confidence Q1 Prior: -42 Friday 23:30 JP ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet Speaks in Tokyo 1:00 JP Consumer Confidence March Prior: +27.6 1:00 JP Consumer Confidence Households March Prior: +26.7 April 16-21 JP Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -11.7% April 15-21 JP Nationwide Dept. Sales (Y/Y) March Prior: -11.5% April 15-21 CN Wholesale Prices (Y/Y) March Prior: -6.0% April 13-17 JP Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report April 14-29 AU NAB Business Confidence Q1 Prior: -42 By Megan Ainscow,
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