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The Week Ahead Japan and Australia: RBA Decision, Australian GDP Print E-mail
Canadian Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Nov 28 08 20:20 GMT | 
(CEP News) - There are several high-profile releases due out of the Asia Pacific next week, with most of those specifically geared towards Australian markets.

First and foremost, markets will be awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s latest interest rate decision. After a total of 200 bps worth of cuts since September, markets are anticipating a 75 bps cut, bringing rates to 4.50% from 5.25%, when the Reserve Bank Board meets on Monday evening (Eastern Standard Time).

Immediately ahead of that release, markets will receive October retail sales data. ANZ economist Riki Polygenis wrote that the data could have an impact on the RBA's decision.

"This will be key to assessing how households have responded to falling equity prices and the weaker economic outlook. Retail sales fell 1.1% in September and we expect a flat outcome in October. The TD Securities Inflation Gauge for November [on Sunday] is also worth watching. If it shows another fall, this will give the RBA greater confidence that they do not need to worry about inflation and may augur for a larger cut," Polygenis wrote.

ANZ is also expecting a 75bp RBA cut. The TD inflation measurement meanwhile last came in with a 0.2% month-over-month decrease and an annualized 3.9% rise. Expectations for the retail sales data are for a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the trend component and a 0.2% seasonally adjusted decrease.

Later on in the week, markets will hone in on the country's latest gross domestic product (GDP) release. The third-quarter release is expected to show a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter rise, after GDP increased 0.3% in the second quarter.

Elsewhere in the region, it's a relatively quiet week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand 's interest rate decision on Wednesday remains another highlight, but, in Japan, the most significant release is third-quarter capital spending. Due out on Wednesday as well, the data are expected to show a 9.8% headline drop-off.

All times in EDT:

Sunday:

Australian inflationary figures, as measured by TD Securities, will be released for November, which last came in with a 0.2% month-over-month decrease and a 3.9% year-over-year rise.

17:30 AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index November Prior: 40.4

18:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (M/M) November Prior: -0.2%

18:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (Y/Y) November Prior: +3.9%

19:30 AU Company Operating Profit (Q/Q) Q3 Exp: +3.0% Prior: +14.3%

19:30 AU Inventories Q3 Exp: +0.7% Prior: +0.3%

20:00 CN PMI Manufacturing November Prior: 44.6

20:30 JP Labor Cash Earnings (Y/Y) October Exp: 0.1% Prior: +0.1% Revised: +0.2%

November 30 - December 2 CN CLSA Manufacturing PMI November Prior: 45.2

November 30 - December 2 CN Real Estate Climate October Prior: 101.15

Monday:

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates significantly once again, when the Reserve Bank Board meets for its year-end meeting. A 75bp cut is expected from current 5.25% rates. Furthermore, Australian October retail sales figures are due out. The month-over-month trend component is expected to increase 0.1% following a previous 0.2% rise. The seasonally adjusted figure is expected to fall 0.2% following a 1.1% decrease in September.

00:00 JP Vehicle Sales (Y/Y) November Prior: -13.1%

00:30 AU RBA Commodity Index SDR (Y/Y) November Prior: 32.4%

18:50 JP Monetary Base (Y/Y) November Prior: 1.4%

19:30 AU Current Account Balance Q3 Exp: -11100M Prior: -12774M

19:30 AU Retail Sales Trend (M/M) October Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.2%

19:30 AU Retail Sales (M/M) (SA) October Exp: -0.2% Prior: -1.1%

22:30 AU Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Announcement Exp: 4.50% Prior: 5.25%

November 30 - December CN CLSA Manufacturing PMI November Prior: 45.2

November 30 - December 2 CN Real Estate Climate October Prior: 101.15

Tuesday:

Markets will anxiously receive Australia's third-quarter gross domestic product print. A 0.2% quarter-over-quarter increase is expected, a slowdown from the second quarter's 0.3% rise.

17:30 AU AiG Performance of Service Index November Prior: 42.1

18:50 JP Loans & Discounts Corp (Y/Y) October Prior: 0.0%

19:30 AU Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) Q3 Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.3%

19:30 AU Gross Domestic Product (Y/Y) Q3 Exp: +1.9%

21:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price November Prior: -7.4%

November 30 - December 2 CN CLSA Manufacturing PMI November Prior: 45.2

November 30 - December 2 CN Real Estate Climate October Prior: 101.15

Wednesday:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy announcement is scheduled for Wednesday evening and a significant 150bp cut is expected from current 6.50% interest rate levels. Australian trade balance and building approvals data are due out as well.

15:00 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Announcement Exp: 5.00% Prior: 6.50%

18:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E November 28 Prior: -¥839.0B

18:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E November 28 Prior: -¥628.6B

18:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E November 28 Prior: ¥512.8B

18:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E November 28 Prior: -¥138.5B

18:50 JP Capital Spending Q3 Exp: -9.8% Prior: -6.5%

18:50 JP Capital Spending excluding Software Q3 Exp: -10.9% Prior: -7.6%

19:30 AU Trade Balance October Exp: +1410M Prior: +1460M

19:30 AU Building Approvals (M/M) October Exp: 0.0% Prior: -7.2%

19:30 AU Building Approvals (Y/Y) October Exp: -21.5%

Thursday:

American International Group will release the performance of construction index for November, which last came in at 36.4.

17:30 AU AiG Performance of Construction Index November Prior: 36.4

Friday:

Australian foreign reserves data for November are due out on Friday, which last came in at $44.9 billion.

00:30 AU Foreign Reserves November Prior: 44.9B

By Ryan Szporer, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Sarah Sussman, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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