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(CEP News) - The first full week of 2009 includes a number of key data releases that are expected to reinforce just how negative the tail end of 2008 was for macroeconomic data. The week culminates with the release of highly-anticipated December employment data for both Canada and the U.S., along with the latest read on the Canadian housing sector with housing starts and building permits figures for December.
"Next week's indicators will constitute yet another stark reminder of how forces in the economy reached maximum negative amplitude at the end of 2008," Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight wrote in a research note. They are pessimistic about the latest employment reading in the U.S., forecasting a 533k drop in nonfarm payrolls on Friday, well above the 500k drop expected by a consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg. That would follow November's worse-than-expected loss of 533k jobs. The IHS Global Insight economists base their estimate on the rapid rise of initial unemployment insurance claims, aside from a distorted reading in the previous week, and also expect the U.S. unemployment rate to jump to 7.1% from November's 6.7% rate. The consensus expects a rise to 7.0%. The employment situation in Canada is also expected to have deteriorated in December, with economists forecasting another 22k jobs lost in the month following the sharp drop of 70.6k in November. The unemployment rate in Canada is also expected to creep up to 6.5% from its current 6.3% rate. "After some surprising resiliency in the early part of this year, the Canadian labour market appeared to fall flat on its face in November, when 71K jobs were reported to have been lost. This reversal in labour market conditions is not entirely surprising, given that the Canadian economy may have slipped into a recession in Q4," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities. "Looking ahead, we expect to see further deterioration in the Canadian labour market as the economy continues to stagnate, but this should translate into only moderate job losses and not those on par with the U.S," he said. Also of note next week, the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its Dec. 16 meeting, which will give greater insight into the Fed's reasoning for taking the historic move to lower its key target rate to a range of 0-0.25%. U.S. housing data, including pending home sales and construction spending, are likely to show continued weakness, with home sales expected to post a 1.0% decline in November following the 0.7% fall in October. In Canada, the end of the week will bring the release of December housing starts and building permits, which are also expected to remain subdued. "The Canadian housing sector correction is now well on its way, and in the months ahead further moderation in residential construction activity is expected as builders adjust their construction activity in the face of weakening demand," Mulraine said. "Moreover, with a weakening economy, sluggish labour market conditions and ebbing home prices, we expect Canadian housing market activity to remain subdued for some time." All times in EST. Sunday: 13:15 US Fed's Yellen Speaks on Fiscal Policy in San Francisco Monday: 10:00 US Construction Spending M/M NOV Exp: -1.3% Prior: -1.2% 13:00 US to Sell $26B 3-Month Bills 13:00 US to Sell $27B 6-Month Bills 13:15 US Fed's Yellen Leads Panel Discussion on Subprime-Loan Crisis 5-Jan US Total Vehicle Sales DEC Exp: +10.0M Prior: +10.2M US Domestic Vehicle Sales DEC Exp: +7.5M Prior: +7.6M Tuesday: 8:30 CA Industrial Product Price M/M NOV Exp: -1.0% Prior: +0.0% 8:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index M/M NOV Exp: -9.0% Prior: -12.5% 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite DEC Exp: +37 Prior: +37.3 10:00 US Factory Orders NOV Exp: -2.3% Prior: -5.1% 10:00 US Pending Home Sales M/M NOV Exp: -1.0% Prior: -0.7% 13:00 US to Sell 4-Week Bills 13:00 US to Sell $8B 10-Year TIPS 14:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 15-16 FOMC Meeting 17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Week Ending 4-Jan Prior: -49 Wednesday: 7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +0.0% 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y DEC Prior: +148.4% 8:15 US ADP Employment Change DEC Exp: -478K Prior: -250K Revised: -472K 10:30 US DOE US Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +549K 10:30 US DOE US Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +808K 10:30 US DOE US Distillate Inventory Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +694K 10:30 US DOE US Refinery Utilization Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: -2.22% 10:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 2 Week Ending -Jan Prior: -541K 10:30 US API US Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +7942K 10:30 US API US Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +1848K 10:30 US API US Distillate Inventory Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: +3852K 13:00 US Fed's Hoenig Speaks in Kansas City on US Economic Outlook 7-Jan 13:00 US to Sell 3-Year Notes US ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y DEC Prior: -2.7% Thursday: 8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Week Ending 3-Jan Exp: +545K Prior: +492K 8:30 US Continuing Claims Week Ending 27-Dec Exp: 4483k Prior: +4506K 10:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index DEC Exp: +37.5 Prior: +40.2 10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Week Ending 2-Jan Prior: -143 13:00 US to Sell 10-Year Notes Reopening 15:00 US Consumer Credit NOV Exp: +$0.1B Prior: -$3.5B 16:00 US Fed's Hoenig Speaks in Colorado on Infrastructure Spending 8-Jan Friday: 7:00 CA Unemployment Rate DEC Exp: +6.5% Prior: +6.3% 7:00 CA Net Change in Employment DEC Exp: -22.0K Prior: -70.6K 8:15 CA Housing Starts DEC Exp: +172.5K Prior: +172.0K 8:30 CA Building Permits M/M NOV Exp: -5.0% Prior: -15.7% 8:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls DEC Exp: -500K Prior: -533K 8:30 US Unemployment Rate DEC Exp: +7.0% Prior: +6.7% 8:30 US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls DEC Exp: -103K Prior: -85K 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings M/M DEC Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.4% 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y DEC Exp: 3.6% Prior: +3.7% 8:30 US Average Weekly Hours DEC Exp: +33.5 Prior: +33.5 10:00 US Wholesale Inventories NOV Exp: -0.7% Prior: -1.1% 12:30 US Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Conditions in Maryland By Stephen Huebl,
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