A first look at U.S. first quarter 2009 GDP at 8:30 a.m. EDT is the most anticipated economic release of the day. Economists expect the economy to contract by an annualized 4.7%, compared to the final Q4 estimate of a 6.3% decline. Consumer spending is expected to rise 0.9%, compared to the 4.3% fall reported in Q4. The GDP Price Index is expected to rise 1.8% versus a 0.5% gain in the previous quarter, while core PCE is expected to rise 1.0% after advancing 0.9% in Q4.

At 10:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release oil inventories for the week ending April 24. Economists are expecting an 1800k build in crude oil reserves following the previous 3857k gain. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories are expected to come in higher by 200k following the previous 802k rise. Distillate inventories are expected to rise 1000k after increasing 2682k in the previous week. Finally, refinery utilization is expected to come in 0.15% higher after spiking 3.07% the week prior.

At 11 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Treasury will announce the quarterly refunding. Estimates are $34 to $36 billion for the 3-year, $21 to $23 billion for the 10-year, and $15 to $17 billion for the 30 year.

At 11:30 a.m. EDT, European central banker Jürgen Stark will speak on crisis management at an event in Siegen, Germany.

After slightly weaker demand from Monday's two-year and Tuesday's five-year note auctions by the U.S. Treasury, the 1 p.m. EDT sale of $26 billion in seven-year notes may move bond markets.

Also to be closely watched will be the Federal Reserve's rate announcement. But with the Fed Funds rates already in a range of 0.0% to 0.25% and the central bank in the process of unleashing multiple unconventional stimulus measures on the credit markets, the best one can hope for is some acknowledgment of a slowdown in the deterioration of the economy. Some economists have suggested that the Fed could expand its Treasury purchases to target a 3.00% to 3.10% rate on the 10-year note. This morning, the yield is 3.013% - near levels prior to last month's initial announcement that the central bank would buy Treasuries. The release is slated for 2:15 p.m. EDT.

Wednesday's highlights on the earnings front include Starbucks, expected to report Q1 earnings of $0.15 per share. Canadian earnings to watch on Wednesday include the Barrick Gold Corporation, expected to report earnings of C$0.35 per share in Q1, and the TMX group, expected to report C$0.65 per share.

All times in EDT.

8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) (Annualized) Q1 Advance Exp: -4.7% Prior: -6.3%

8:30 US Personal Consumption Q1 Exp: +0.9% Prior: -4.3%

8:30 US GDP Price Index Q1 Exp: +1.8% Prior: +0.5%

8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 Exp: +1.0% Prior: +0.9%

9:00 US Fed's Open Market Committee Meets on Interest Rates, Economy

10:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E April 24 Exp: 1800k Prior: +3857K

10:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E April 24 Exp: 200k Prior: +802K

10:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E April 24 Exp: 1000k Prior: +2682K

10:30 US DOE U.S. Heat Oil Inventories W/E April 24 Prior: -85K

10:30 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E April 24 Exp: 0.15% Prior: +3.07%

11:30 DE ECB's Stark Speaks in Siegen, Germany

13:00 US Treasury to Sell $26B 7-Year Notes

14:15 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision Exp: 0.13% Prior: 0.25%

By Erik Kevin Franco, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Stephen Huebl, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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