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(CEP News) Frankfurt - While economists are unanimously expecting the European Central Bank to keep its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.00% following its rate decision meeting on Thursday, they are less united regarding the tone of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's remarks.
"I would expect for the tone to remain broadly neutral in their overall statements," JPMorgan euro area economist Silvia Pepino said, adding that the main refinancing rate will remain unchanged. "They may fine-tune some parts of the speech, but I think that the overall message won't have much change from what was said in early April." Pepino highlighted that over the last month, a significant amount of volatility had been seen in terms of activity data, such as inflation, sentiment indicators and even Council member commentary, adding that some members seemed a little more hawkish while others slightly more dovish. "So, I think that, putting all of that together, considering what has been happening over the last month and the message that the ECB probably wants to send, to me the message will probably be neutral and consistent with overall unchanged interest rates for the moment," Pepino said. "The ECB is facing a balancing act," Pepino stated, adding that it will note downside risks to growth and a headline inflation rate well above target levels, despite its slowdown in March. Pepino explained that she thinks that the overall mood of the Council will be strongly supportive of unchanged rates, adding that she believed that the decision to keep rates at 4.00% will be unanimous. Pepino also said that the central bank will acknowledge the deceleration of the more liquid elements of money supply and the buoyant expansion of corporate credit numbers. Turning to the Q&A portion of the press conference, Pepino suggested that in the strong likelihood of a question on exchange rates, Trichet would simply reiterate the ECB's dislike for excessive volatility and make reference to the strong dollar policy of the U.S. Pepino reiterated her belief that Trichet will maintain a neutral stance and does not expect any surprises in either direction, adding that the ECB will want to prevent any market misinterpretations. "Following this week's meeting, we expect the governing council to send a more dovish message than it did in April," Lehman Brothers senior European economist Laurent Bilke said in a research note. "At the same time, we expect it to try to anchor market expectations to a scenario in which the ECB keeps rates on hold." Referring to comments from ECB officials over the past month, Bilke proposed that those same comments could possibly imply an upcoming rate hike. "Although we were troubled by these unusually hawkish comments, we are now reassured (thanks to Mr Trichet): it seems that in reality nothing has changed," Bilke said. "The excessively hawkish comments reflected either individual opinions that do not match the governing council's or some stiffness in communication caused by a misperception of market conditions." Bilke also noted the decrease in business sentiment survey readings, inflation growth and aggregate money supply, along with enduring money market tensions and tightening credit conditions, adding that he expects Trichet to acknowledge these developments. "We would expect last month's statement that financial turbulence could have a stronger effect than previously anticipated to remain in the first paragraph of the introductory statement; the case could even be made a bit more strongly in our view," Bilke said. "Also, some mention could be made of emerging signs of weakening economic activity, although the general momentum remains relatively close to potential." Bilke also highlighted that the ECB was quick to correct a market misinterpretation of the ECB's change in stance in February, when the bank had stressed growth risks. "We would not be surprised, for example, if the ECB president stated in very clear terms that the ECB is happy to stay on hold at 4%. But we would not be convinced: we continue to expect three 25bp rate cuts in September, December and March," Bilke concluded. However, Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert said that a softer tone at the press conference would be more of a surprise than a return to slightly sharper rhetoric. "In contrast to the majority of economists, we expect that the ECB will start to cut the refi rate only from next spring onwards." Schubert emphasized that based on their most recent comments, ECB members had thus ruled out the chance of a rate cut in the near future. "Some are even suggesting that further tightening is possible," he concluded. By Todd Wailoo,
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