RBS chief euro area economist Jacques Cailloux said the upcoming week's data consists mostly of second-tier indicators for the euro zone but that he will be paying close attention to the euro area industrial production figures, to be released on Friday.

"The reason why is that we have been looking for a technical recession in the manufacturing sector since May," Cailloux said. "So, we're keeping a close eye on what's going on in manufacturing. We think that we'll get confirmation of that next week. And so, we are entering the third quarter on a very weak note."

Looking beyond manufacturing output, Cailloux speculates that the risk of a technical recession in the overall economy is also increasing.

"But we are not calling for it just yet," he said. "There are still some indicators which are still not consistent with that, and so we holding off a bit on this. But, it's still absolutely clear that the risks of a technical recession are rising."

Economists at Barclays Capital indicated in a research note that they will be paying attention to French inflation estimates, also scheduled for release on Friday. They expect a deceleration in the HICP growth rate in August, in line with consensus.

"We forecast French HCP inflation to have fallen to 3.6% y/y in August from 4.0% in July and look for final German, Italian and Spanish HICPs to be unrevised (at 3.3% y/y, 4.2% y/y and 4.9% y/y, respectively)," Barclays Capital economist Fabio Fois said.

"On balance, we view these projections as favouring confirmation of the 3.8% "flash", although we still expect the euro area Final HICP to be close to 3.85% and so see a significant risk of an upward revision should the remaining country data surprise to the upside."

Turning to the UK, Gian Espejo, senior dealer at GCI Financial, said Monday's PPI numbers will play an important role as markets continue to expect rate cuts from the Bank of England.

"There's a lot happening next week. Many UK data will be released on Monday and will either add to the argument that BoE's MPC is too fixated on inflation at the expense of managing the economic growth slowdown or will contribute to the view that consumer price inflation remains public enemy number one of gilts," he said.

All times in EDT.

Saturday: While no data releases are expected for Saturday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled to speak in Cernobbio, Italy.

2:30 IT ECB's Trichet Speaks in Cernobbio, Italy

3:30 EU EU Foreign Ministers Conclude meeting in Avignon

Monday : The main data release of note will be the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the euro zone for September. The consensus forecast is calling for investor pessimism to increase this month, pushing the indicator to -18.3, three points lower than August's -15.3 level.

In terms of speakers, ECB executive board member Jürgen Stark will deliver a speech in Nyborg, Denmark on Monday, while his Austrian counterpart, Gertrude Tumpel Gugerell is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt, Germany a few hours later. In the evening, executive board member José Manuel González-Páramo will give a speech on markets in London, England.

In the UK, markets will pay attention to August's PPI report, looking for signs that inflation is starting to abate. The BRC will also release its retail sales report for August.

4:30 GB PPI Input (M/M) (SA) August Exp: -1.2% Prior: -0.6%

4:30 GB PPI Input (Y/Y) (NSA) August Exp: 29.0% Prior: +30.1%

4:30 GB PPI Output (M/M) (NSA) August Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.4%

4:30 GB PPI Output (Y/Y) (NSA) August Exp: +10.2% Prior: +10.2%

4:30 GB PPI Output Core (M/M) (SA) August Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.3%

4:30 GB PPI Output Core (Y/Y) (NSA) August Exp: +6.6% Prior: +6.7%

4:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence September Exp: -18.3 Prior: -15.3

7:00 EU ECB's Stark Speaks in Nyborg, Denmark

10:30 EU ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Frankfurt

19:00 DE Germany Fourth Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook

19:00 GB ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo Gives Speech on Markets in London

19:01 GB BRC August Retail Sales Monitor

19:01 GB RICS House Price Balance August Exp: -85.0% Prior: -83.9%

Tuesday: First up for Tuesday will be the German trade balance and current account, both for the month of July. Economists are expecting the trade surplus to fall €900 million to €17.8 billion for the month, while the current account surplus is likely to slip €3.0 billion to €15.3 billion over the same period.

Shortly after the German data release, Tumpel-Gugerell will speak in Paris, France, while Bundesbank President and ECB governing council member Axel Weber will give a speech in Frankfurt, Germany.

2:00 DE Trade Balance July Exp: 17.5B Prior: 19.7B

2:00 DE Current Account (EURO) July Exp: 15.0B Prior: 18.5B

2:00 DE Imports SA (M/M) July Exp: 0.3% Prior: -0.1%

2:00 DE Exports SA (M/M) July Exp: -1.1% Prior: +4.2%

3:00 EU ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Paris

4:30 GB Industrial Production (M/M) July Exp: -0.1% Prior: -0.2%

4:30 GB Industrial Production (Y/Y) July Exp: -1.4% Prior: -1.6%

4:30 GB Manufacturing Production (M/M) July Exp: -0.1% Prior: -0.5%

4:30 GB Manufacturing Production (Y/Y) July Exp: -1.1% Prior: -1.3%

5:00 DE ECB's Weber Speaks in Frankfurt

19:01 GB NIESR GDP Estimate August Prior: +0.1%

Wednesday: Ahead of the French industrial production data release, economists are expecting output to have fallen 2.5% in July year-over-year, down from June's 1.6% contraction.

In monthly terms, the consensus forecast is calling for a small 0.3% rebound in production levels following June's 0.4% loss.

French trade balance figures for July are also expected out on Wednesday. The median consensus estimate is pointing to a small reduction in the trade deficit to €5.0 billion from June's €5.3 billion level.

Following French trade data, markets will receive Italian second quarter final GDP estimates, but no changes are expected to the preliminary estimates.

At the same time, ECB council member Erkki Liikanen will deliver a speech in Helsinki, Finland. Meanwhile, ECB council member Axel Weber is scheduled to speak in Oberhausen, Germany and ECB council member Yves Mersch will be speaking in Luxembourg.

2:45 FR Industrial Production (M/M) July Exp: 0.2% Prior: -0.4%

2:45 FR Industrial Production (Y/Y) July Exp: -2.6% Prior: -1.6%

2:45 FR Manufacturing Production (M/M) July Exp: 0.2% Prior: -0.8%

2:45 FR Manufacturing Production (Y/Y) July Exp: -3.2% Prior: -2.1%

2:45 FR Trade Balance (Euros) July Exp: €-5.0B Prior: €-5.6B

3:00 EU ECB's Trichet, Juncker Speak at EU Parliament in Brussels

3:00 EU European Commission Holds Weekly Meeting

4:00 IT Trade Balance non-euro July Prior: -2328

4:30 GB Visible Trade Balance July Exp: -£7500 -£7684

4:30 GB Trade Balance Non-euro July Exp: -£4500 Prior: -£4744

4:30 GB Total Trade Balance July Exp: -£4200 Prior: -£4414

5:00 IT GDP (Q/Q) (SA WDA) Q2 Exp: -0.3% Prior: +0.4%

5:00 IT GDP (Y/Y) (SA WDA) Q2 Exp: 0.0% Prior: +0.0%

5:00 IT Private Consumption Q2 Exp: -0.2% Prior: +0.1%

5:00 IT Government Spending Q2 Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.4%

5:00 IT Total investments Q2 Exp: -0.6% Prior: -0.2%

5:00 IT Exports Q2 Exp: -0.5% Prior: 1.4%

05:00 IT Imports Q2 Exp: -0.3% Prior: -0.5%

5:00 EU ECB Council Member Liikanen Speaks in Helsinki

September 10 IT Bank of Italy Releases July Public Finance Supplement

7:00 EU German Marshall Fund Releases EU-U.S. Opinion Survey

10:00 EU EU's McCreevy Speaks at European Parliament in Brussels

12:30 DE ECB's Weber Speaks in Oberhausen, Germany

September 10-12 EU ECB's Trichet, Wellink, Lagarde Attend Financial Conference

September 10 EU ECB's Mersch speaking in Luxembourg

Thursday: The German wholesale price index is first up for Thursday. Economists are anticipating wholesale price inflation to slow to 8.5% in August on an annualized basis from July's 9.9% level.

Meanwhile, the price index is likely to have grown only 0.2% in the period from July to August, down significantly from July's 1.4% monthly gain.

In terms of ECB speakers, central banker Tumpel-Gugerell will give a speech in Nice, France. A few hours later, ECB President Trichet will speak, also in Nice.

2:00 DE Wholesale price Index (Y/Y) August Exp: +8.6% Prior: +9.9%

2:00 DE Wholesale Price Index (M/M) August Exp: -0.2% Prior: +1.4%

2:45 FR Non-Farm Payrolls (Q/Q) Q2 Exp: -0.1% Prior: -0.1%

3:15 DE ECB's Papademos Speaks in Hamburg

4:30 GB Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey

4:45 GB BOE's King, Bean, Tucker, Blanchflower, Sentance Testify

6:00 IE Irish Statistics Office Publishes August Inflation Index

8:30 EU ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Nice

14:00 EU ECB's Trichet Speaks in Nice

Friday: The last day of the work week begins with a speech from ECB board member Tumpel-Gugerell, once again scheduled to speak in Nice.

In terms of data releases, the Bank of France's business sentiment indicator data release is the first for the day. Economists expect no change in French business confidence and anticipate the indicator to remain stable at 32 in August.

Shortly afterwards, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) will publish its consumer price index data for France. Ahead of the release, however, economists are expecting the EU harmonized CPI growth rate to have slowed to 3.6% year-over-year in August after holding steady at 4.0% in July.

On a monthly basis, the price index is expected to remain stagnant in August following July's 0.3% fall.

Next up is euro zone industrial production. Following June's 0.8% fall, revised down from -0.5%, July is expected to see a further 0.4% contraction in annualized terms. Meanwhile, production levels are expected to have fallen 0.2% month-over-month in July, mirroring the 0.2% fall seen in the previous period. June's figure was recently revised up from 'no change'.

1:30 EU ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks in Nice

2:30 FR Bank of France Business Sentiment August Exp: 92 Prior: 92

2:45 FR Consumer Price Index (M/M) August Exp: +0.1% Prior: -0.2%

2:45 FR Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) August Exp: +3.3% Prior: +3.6%

2:45 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (M/M) August Exp: +0.1% Prior: -0.3%

2:45 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (Y/Y) August Exp: +3.7% Prior: +4.0%

2:45 FR CPI Ex Tobacco Index August Exp: 118.81 Prior: 118.69

4:00 IT Industrial Production (M/M) (SA)July Exp: -0.5% Prior: +0.1%

4:00 IT Industrial Production (Y/Y) (WDA) July Exp: -2.5% Prior: -1.8%

4:00 IT Industrial Production (Y/Y) (NSA) July Prior: -4.4%

5:00 EU Euro zone Employment (Q/Q) Q2 Prior: +0.3%

5:00 EU Euro zone Employment (Y/Y) Q2 Prior: +1.6%

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Industrial Production (M/M) (SA) July Exp: -0.3% Prior: 0.0% Revised: -0.2

5:00 EU Euro-Zone Industrial Production (Y/Y) (WDA) July Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.5% Revised: -0.8

6:00 IE Irish Statistics Office Publishes July Retail Sales Index

6:30 GB BOE's Tucker Makes Speech

By Todd Wailoo This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Stephen Huebl, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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