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(CEP News) London - UK April output producer prices, due for publication by the Office for National Statistics on Monday at 4:30 a.m. EDT, are seen moving further up as manufacturers looked to pass on their sharply higher input costs, economists said on Friday ahead of the data release.
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight, feels manufacturers would be feeling the pain of elevated oil, commodity and food prices as well as a softer pound sterling. "Headline annual producer output inflation is expected to have risen to 6.4% in April, which would be its highest level since February 1991. Annual core output price inflation is seen rising to 3.2% in April from 3.0% in March," Archer said. "Latest survey data from the manufacturing purchasing managers and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) show that companies are currently very keen to raise their prices to boost their margins," he added. However, Simon Hayes, economist at Barclays Capital, is looking for producer output prices to fall to a below-consensus 0.3% month-over-month (6.1% year-over-year) in April from 0.9% month-over-month (6.2% year-over-year) in March with the consensus at 0.6% month-over-month (6.4% year-over-year). "For producer core output prices, Barclays Capital expects a gain of 0.1% month-over-month (3.1% year-over-year) in April from 0.3% month-over-month (3.1% year-over-year) in March. We look for UK producer input prices to print an above consensus 2.5% month-over-month (22.3% year-over-year) in April, from 1.8% month-over-month (20.6% year-over-year) in February," Hayes added. Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist and director at Capital Economics, feels that there have been very few signs so far that the slowdown in activity both at home and overseas is putting a dent in producers' pricing power. He expects further evidence in April's figures that manufacturers are still passing higher costs along the supply chain. "There is no doubt that firms' raw material costs are rising at record rates and are likely to continue to do so in the coming months. The 7% rise in the oil price and the 2% fall in the sterling trade-weighted index in April could mean that producers' input prices rise by around 3% in April," Loynes said. "This would push input price inflation up from 20.6% in March to just under 23% - a new record high. And if the oil price were to remain above $120 per barrel, input price inflation could rise to around 26% in May," he added. Looking ahead, Loynes believes the producer prices data is likely to be of concern to the MPC. "Given the recent trend, it would be very surprising if producers did not pass on at least some of their own costs by raising their selling prices," he concluded. By Gaurav Sharma,
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