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UK Preview: BOE Minutes Expected to Show 8-1 Split Over Rate Hold Print E-mail
European Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Jul 22 08 15:25 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Soaring inflation and slowing economic growth is expected to have prompted eight Monetary Policy Committee members voting to hold rates and one member in favour for a cut at the Bank of England's meeting on July 9 and 10. However, with good arguments being made for both higher and lower interest rates, economists agree that there is some scope for surprise on which direction the MPC could be leaning.

Earlier in July, the central bank opted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.00% for the third consecutive month.

"The vote was likely again 8-to-1, with (David) Blanchflower the lone dissenter calling for a cut," said Benjamin Reitzes at BMO Capital Markets. "The tone could be slightly more dovish, as growth is clearly slowing sharply, which will serve to keep a lid on wages and second-round effects despite rising headline inflation."

Indeed, recent measures in the UK point to slowing economic growth. The manufacturing PMI for June declined to 45.8 from 29.5 in May while the services index fell to 47.1 from 49.8.

Although most share Reitzes' view of the BOE remaining on hold, some see the possibility for a slightly more hawkish surprise. A report from Barclays points out that soaring inflation pressures in the region could have prompted some of the hawks to push for action.

"Given the unexpectedly high CPI print for June of 3.8% y/y, of which the MPC would have had a preview, we see a risk that one or two members (most likely Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley) may have voted for a 25bp rate hike," read the report.

Another report from Capital Economics agrees that higher-than-expected inflation in June might have pushed the BOE to a more hawkish discussion, but expectations of rising prices were already in place prior to the CPI releases.

"Accordingly, we suspect that the idea of a rate hike was dismissed more easily this month and that more attention fell on the case for lower interest rates," economists from Capital Economics. "Admittedly, we doubt that anyone joined David Blanchflower in actually voting for a rate cut. But recent comments by Kate Barker suggest that she may not be too far away from voting for lower rates. And in the past, Barker's votes have often been a fairly reliable indicator of the thinking of the Committee as a whole."

"Accordingly, these minutes may go some way to extending the recent trend of falling market interest rate expectations and bond yields," they added.

Indeed, some bond traders are already looking for lower yields given the argument that the Bank of England holding now implies more aggressive easing once the inflation threat abates.

"We suspect the market will increasingly focus upon the activity side of the UK's stagflationary backdrop," said Richard McGuire, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "The notion that less policy action near term will require more aggressive easing further out will enjoy a growing degree of support."

"Against this backdrop, we have entered a 4s-10s steepener (UKT5% 2012s offering some appeal given how far they have cheapened in the wake of last week's supply) at -0.4bp with a target of +22bp and a stop of -11bp."

Foreign exchange strategists are also expecting the MPC to lower interest rates once the inflation picture improves.

"We expect the pound to fall sharply - and broadly - once the rising inflation danger has passed (possibly late this year if oil prices stabilize) and the MPC collectively feels comfortable moving towards monetary accommodation - in line with a small but persistently dovish wing," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities.

By Erik Kevin Franco, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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