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(CEP News) Frankfurt - After two weeks of central bank rate decisions, German ZEW indicators and euro zone GDP preliminary estimates, market observers will find some time to relax with a relatively quiet week ahead of them.
Nevertheless, in the UK, markets will be paying close attention to the minutes from the Bank of England's MPC meeting on November 6. At that meeting, the central bank cut interest rates by 1.50%, bringing rates to 3.00%. Markets will also receive October's CPI and RPI report, as well as retail sales data. "With last week's Inflation Report indicating that interest rates need to fall much further, the minutes of November's meeting may help to answer the question of why the MPC didn't cut rates by even more than 150 basis points," wrote economists from Capital Economics in a research note concerning the MPC minutes. "The one uncertainty is whether David Blanchflower voted for a bigger cut. But we think that even he would have been satisfied with a 150bps cut - for now." Analysts from Citigroup will be paying attention to retail sales data, and expect the report to continue to highlight the growing economic weakness. They said they expect the report to drag down the sterling. "The UK economy will be particularly hard hit, suggesting that selling rallies should remain attractive in the medium term," they wrote in a research note. With most of the focus on the weakening UK economy, Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist from IHS Global Insight wrote in a report that inflation won't have much of an impact on interest rates. "Inflation is poised to drop like a stone over the coming months due to lower oil, commodity and food prices," he wrote. "We suspect that a 50 basis point interest rate cut from 3.00% to 2.50% is the absolute minimum that will occur in December, and we are increasingly leaning towards the view that the Bank of England will slash interest rates by a further 100 basis points to 2.00%." Looking at the calendar of events scheduled for the upcoming week in Europe, Bankhaus Lampe Capital Markets head Alex Krüger said he would be paying attention to the producer price data due for release in Germany. Nevertheless, he suggests the figures are only likely to confirm the belief that inflation is coming down in the euro zone. Mike Leavitt, fixed income strategist from MF global in Canada, said looking at the bond market, he doesn't think next week's data are going to have much impact. Considering the current economic environment in the UK and Europe, he sees a continued steeping trend, a trend seen in North America and Asia. "No matter where you are the story is still the same for steeper yield curves," he said. "The BOE has basically thrown in the towel and will continue to lower rates and it is just a matter of time before the ECB follows." All times in EST: Saturday: European Central Bank Executive Board member Jürgen Stark is scheduled to speak at an event in Berlin, Germany on Saturday. All eyes will be on Washington as G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet to discuss the growing economic crisis. 5:15 DE ECB Executive member Jurgen Stark speaks at an even in Berlin November 15 US G20 economic meeting in Washington, D.C. Sunday: The UK housing sector will be in the spotlight with the release of Rightmove housing prices, which previously showed an annualized decline of 4.9%. 19:01 GB Rightmove House Prices (M/M) November Prior: +1.0% 19:01 GB Rightmove House Prices (Y/Y) November Prior: -4.9% Monday: The work week begins with the release of the Bank of France's business sentiment report for October. Previously, the indicator fell to 87, reflecting the deterioration of business confidence in France. Later on, Eurostat will publish data on the euro zone trade balance for September. Prior to the release, economists expect the trade deficit to fall to €5.7 billion in seasonally adjusted terms from August's €6.1 billion deficit. In non-seasonally adjusted terms, the deficit is likely to fall to €6.0 billion, down €3.3 billion from the previous month's level. In terms of speakers, European Central Bank member Axel Weber will speak at an event in Frankfurt, Germany, while ECB member Ewald Nowotny and EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia will speak at a conference in Vienna, Austria. Also scheduled to speak on Monday is ECB member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, who will deliver a keynote speech at the European Transaction Banking Conference on the occasion of the 11th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, Germany. 1:30 FR Bank of France Business Sentiment October Exp: 85 Prior: 87 3:00 DE ECB Executive member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell speaks at an event in Frankfurt 3:50 DE German central bank president Axel Weber speaks in Frankfurt 5:00 EU Euro Zone Trade Balance September Exp: -6.0B Prior: -9.3B 5:00 EU Euro Zone Trade Balance September (SA) Exp: -5.7B Prior: -6.1B 5:00 DE ECB's Weber holds speech in Frankfurt 12:30 DE German central Bank President Axel Weber gives welcoming remarks at an event in Frankfurt Tuesday: First up on Tuesday will be the Italian total trade balance for September, expected to fall deeper into deficit territory with a reading of -€2.500 billion for the month, down from August's -€2.116 billion figure. Looking at trade with countries solely within the euro zone, the balance is expected to jump to a surplus of €250 million, up significantly from August's €25 million deficit. Soon after, the Italian current account for September will be published. Ahead of the release, expectations are calling for the current account deficit to increase to €3.5 billion from August's €2.9 billion deficit. Prior to the above data releases, ECB member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell will speak again in Frankfurt, Germany at the European Pension Funds Congress. Her German counterpart, Jürgen Stark is expected to participate in a panel discussion on 'Monetary and Financial Stability in Europe' at the Lead Conference 2008 on the occasion of the 11th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. ECB council member Erkki Liikanen will deliver a speech at an event in Helsinki, Finland, while ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will give a speech at an event organized by the Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation in London, England. Economists are expecting UK inflation for October to rise 0.1% following a 0.5% rise in September. Annualized inflation is expected to rise 4.8% following a prior rise of 5.2% 3:10 DE ECB Executive member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell Holds Speech in Frankfurt 4:00 IT Trade Balance September (Total) Exp: -€2500M Prior: -€2116M 4:00 IT Trade Balance September EU Exp: €250.0M Prior: -€25.0M 4:30 GB CPI (M/M) October Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.5% 4:30 GB CPI (Y/Y) October Exp: +4.8% Prior: +5.2% 4:30 GB Core CPI (Y/Y) October Exp: +2.2% Prior: +2.2% 4:30 GB Retail Price Index October Exp: 218.6 Prior: 218.4 4:30 GB RPI (M/M) October Exp: +0.0% Prior: +0.6% 4:30 GB RPI (Y/Y) October Exp: +4.5% Prior: +5.0% 4:30 GB RPI Ex Mortgage Interest Payments (Y/Y) October Exp: +5.2% Prior: +5.5% 5:00 IT Current Account September Exp: -€3500M Prior: -€2886M 5:00 EU Construction Output SA (M/M) September Prior: +0.1% 5:00 EU Construction Output WDA (Y/Y) September Prior: -2.5% 10:00 DE ECB Executive member Jurgen Stark speaks at an event in Frankfurt 10:30 GB BOE committee member Tim Besley to deliver speech 10:30 EU Finland Central Bank Governor Erkki Liikanen speaks at an event in Helsinki 13:30 EU ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at an event in London November 18 PT Bank of Portugal publishes Autumn Economic Bulletin Wednesday: Markets will pay close attention to the BOE's MPC minutes from the November 6 meeting, which could signal more aggressive cuts in December. At the November meeting, the bank cut rates by 1.50%, bringing interest rates to 3.00%. Markets will also hear from two Bank of England deputy governors, as Sir John Gieve and Charles Bean are scheduled to speak at an event in London. 4:30 GB Bank of England to release minutes from November 6 MPC meeting 6:00 GB U.K. CBI November Industrial Trends 13:40 GB BOE deputy governor Sir John Gieve to deliver speech at an event in London 13:40 GB BOE deputy governor Charles Bean to deliver speech at an event in London Thursday: German producer price data are scheduled for release on Thursday. Currently, the consensus forecast is calling for producer price inflation to come in at 7.3% year-over-year in October, down one percentage point from September's print. On a monthly basis, economists expect the PPI to contract 0.7% after rising 0.3% from August to September. Two hours later, the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) will publish Italian industrial orders data, expected to fall further in September by 4.2% following August's 0.3% slide. Year-over-year, orders are likely to decline 6.4%, overshadowing the 5.2% drop in the 12 months to August. ISTAT will also release data on Italian industrial sales for September. Currently, expectations are for sales to decline 0.8% in September. Previously, they slipped 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms. On an annualized basis, industrial sales are expected to rise 2.3% in September, up from August's 11.0% fall. Meanwhile, ECB member Axel Weber is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion at an event in Frankfurt, Germany. Turning to the UK, markets will receive October retail sales data, which are expected to fall 0.9% following a 0.4% decline in September. The annualized rate is expected to increase 1.4%, following the previous rise of 1.8%. 2:00 DE Producer Prices (M/M) October Exp: -0.7% Prior: +0.3% 2:00 DE Producer Prices (Y/Y) October Exp: +7.3% Prior: +8.3% 4:00 IT Industrial Orders (M/M) (SA) September Exp: -4.2% Prior: -0.3% 4:00 IT Industrial Orders (Y/Y) (NSA) September Exp: -6.4% Prior: -5.2% 4:00 IT Industrial Sales (M/M) (SA) September Exp: -0.8% Prior: -3.0% 4:00 IT Industrial Sales (Y/Y) (NSA) September Exp: +2.3% Prior: -11.0% 4:30 GB Retail Sales (M/M) October Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.4% 4:30 GB Retail Sales (Y/Y) October Exp: +1.4% Prior: +1.8% 4:30 GB Public Finances (PSNCR) October Exp: -2.5B Prior: 12.6B 4:30 GB Public Sector Net Borrowing October Exp: 0.4B Prior: 8.1B 4:30 GB M4 Money Supply (M/M) October Preliminary Exp: +0.8% Prior: +1.5% 4:30 GB M4 Money Supply (Y/Y) October Preliminary Exp: +12.7% Prior: +12.4% 9:30 DE German Central Bank Governor Axel Weber participates in a panel discussion at an event in Frankfurt November 20 PT Bank of Portugal publishes Statistical Bulletin Friday: The last day of the work week begins with the release of French consumer spending data, likely to rise 0.9% year-over-year in October, down from September's 1.5% gain. Following preliminary estimates from France and Germany, Markit Economics will publish advance figures for the euro zone's November purchasing managers indexes for the manufacturing and services sectors. Currently, expectations are for the manufacturing PMI to fall further to 40.5 in November from October's 41.1 level, while the services index is likely to slip to 45.0, down 0.8 points from October's figure. Taken together, the composite PMI is forecast to come in at 42.8 in November, down from 43.6 in October. Regarding speeches, ECB member Ewald Nowotny is scheduled to speak at a briefing in Austria, while ECB member Axel Weber will give a speech in Frankfurt, Germany. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board member José Manuel González-Páramo will deliver a speech at the IE Business School Annual Alumni Conference in Madrid, Spain, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will participate in a panel discussion at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress 2008 in Frankfurt, Germany. 2:45 FR Consumer Spending (M/M) October Exp: +0.5% Prior: +0.6% 2:45 FR Consumer Spending (Y/Y) October Exp: +0.9% Prior: +1.5% 3:00 FR PMI Manufacturing November Preliminary Exp: 40 Prior: 40.6 3:00 FR PMI Services November Preliminary Exp: 47.0Prior: 47.5 3:30 DE PMI Manufacturing November Advance Exp: 42 Prior: 42.9 3:30 DE PMI Services November Advance Exp: 47.5 Prior: 48.3 4:00 IT Retail Sales (M/M) (SA) September Exp: -0.2% Prior: -0.5% 4:00 IT Retail Sales (Y/Y) September Exp: -0.7% Prior: -1.3% 4:00 EU PMI Manufacturing November Advance 40.5 Prior: 41.1 4:00 EU PMI Services November Advance Exp: 45 Prior: 45.8 4:00 EU PMI Composite November Advance Exp: 42.8 Prior: 43.6 4:00 EU Austria central bank governor Ewald Nowotny speaks at briefing 5:30 DE German Central Bank Governor Axel Weber speaks at an event in Frankfurt 6:30 EU ECB executive member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks at an event in Madrid November 21 PT Bank of Portugal Releases Monthly Economic Indicators Report By Todd Wailoo,
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