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Friday's News Recap: Paulson Says Turmoil Is Calmer, Mixed North American Data Print E-mail
News Recap |  Written by CEP News |  May 16 08 20:35 GMT | 
(CEP News) It was a quiet Friday afternoon, highlighted by optimistic comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on the state of the U.S. economy. This speech followed surprisingly higher housing starts and building permits and lower U.S. consumer sentiment and Canadian vehicle sales.

At the 2008 Luncheon of the Post 200 in Pennsylvania, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the financial turmoil that started in August is "considerably calmer now."

Paulson also said he expects the housing sector recovery to be a more forceful driver of the economy in the future, predicting that GDP will grow faster by the end of the year.

One of Canada's major banks issued a report Friday suggesting the rapid run-up in crude oil prices is nearing an end. In its monthly commodity report, BMO Capital Markets said it expects the price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to drop back to $106 a barrel in the second half of 2008 and to fall to an average $98 per barrel next year.

The preliminary consumer sentiment survey from Reuters and the University of Michigan, released Friday at 10 a.m. EDT, tumbled beyond the previous month's 26-year low, falling to 59.5 from April's 62.6. Expectations called for a decline to a level of 62.0.

At the same time, a report was released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that reported minor changes in Regional and State unemployment rates in 28 states and the District of Columbia. 14 states saw increases while eight remained unchained

U.S. housing starts rose well above expectations to 1032k in April, marking a month-over-month increase of 8.2%, according to data released from the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday morning at 8:30. The consensus was looking for a decline to a 935k level. Meanwhile, building permits totalled 978k in April, an increase of 4.9% month-over-month from 932k last month and above the consensus call for 915k.

At the same time, it was reported that lower passenger car sales in Quebec and Newfoundland pushed new motor vehicle sales 0.5% lower in March than February. This did not offset the "extraordinary increases registered in January," Statistics Canada reported. Despite the dip in March, the first quarter of 2008 saw the strongest sales gain since 1998, the statistical agency reported.

Euro zone trade balance unexpectedly fell into negative territory with a trade deficit reading of €2.3 billion in March following a €0.8 billion surplus in February, according to Eurostat. Economists had expected the surplus to strengthen to €2.5 billion. In seasonally adjusted terms, euro zone registered a trade deficit of €2.4 billion following the previous month's €1.6 billion surplus. February's reading was revised down from €2.1 billion.

On Friday, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) announced that the global basic wage rate in France increased 1.1% quarter-over-quarter basis in the first quarter of 2008. The previous quarter had seen wage gains of 0.3%. Economists had expected a wage growth rate of 0.9% quarter-over-quarter.

INSEE also reported that French nonfarm payrolls rose 0.2% according to preliminary estimates for Q1, down from the previous quarter's 0.4% increase and the expected 0.3% rise. Q4 2007's reading was revised up from 0.3%.

Also on Friday, Denmark's National Bank increased its lending rate and its interest rate for deposit certificates to 4.35% from 4.25%. The Danish central bank also stated that its discount rate and the interest rate on banks' current accounts would stay at 4.00%.

Additionally, Denmark's National Bank, Sweden's Riksbank and Norges Bank have entered into bilateral swap agreements of the Central Bank of Iceland on Friday. The agreement allows the Icelandic central bank to obtain euros as needed to ensure its financial stability.

In an interview on Thursday in Vienna, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher stated that he saw no room for the ECB to reduce interest rates in 2008.

"The current monetary policy stance is very suitable to maintain price stability and to avoid inflation expectations building up," Liebscher said.

Liebscher said that inflation at 3% was "unacceptable" and that the ECB will do what was needed to prevent second-round inflation effects.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Yves Mersch said that while inflation risks were on the upside, the current ECB rates would help limit prices rises.

"We've said that the current level will help contribute to reaching our medium-term objective," Mersch said in an interview in Vienna late on Thursday.

Some negative news from markets was still expected, Mersch said, but he added that some normalization was returning and that "the beginning of a bottoming out in various market segments" could be seen.

In an interview with Austria's Die Presse, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said that strong fluctuations in the currency markets were harming companies in the euro zone and the economy itself.

"I believe that especially volatile foreign-exchange markets with sudden swings, which were recently the case, are hurting our companies and our economy," Lagarde said.

However, Lagarde conceded that the strong euro was helping to dampen the effects of surging oil prices.

On Friday, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet gave a keynote address at the 9th Brussels Economic Forum organised by the European Commission in Brussels and said there was no room for complacency on inflation.

It is "a necessary condition to sustain economic growth, job creation and social cohesion," Trichet elaborated.

While external shocks may cause deviations in CPI away from the ECB's goal, Trichet emphasized that medium-term price stability needed to be ensured. Trichet also stated that price stability and economic growth went together and that the former was essential for the latter.

Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Friday, European Commissioner on Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia said that external shocks were adding to upside inflation pressures.

"We should avoid fuelling inflationary pressures coming from abroad," the commissioner added.

Almunia stated that upside risks to inflation could be seen and suggested that the euro area could see difficulties in the future. However, he did acknowledge the euro zone economy was more resilient than before.

Speaking in Brussels, Belgium on Friday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen stated that financial markets were suffering from bipolar tendencies and were contributing to uncertainty instead of growth.

Liikanen, also the Governor of the Bank of Finland, said that rating agencies needed to perform better and while risk could not fully be eliminated, market deregulation would be helpful for growth, adding that protected sectors rarely develop properly.

The Japanese economy unexpectedly rose 3.1% in the first quarter, higher than the consensus forecast of 2.5% and up from the revised Q4 figure of 2.6%.

Preliminary Q1 quarterly GDP figures increased 0.8%, rising above the expected 0.6% forecast and beating the revised Q4 level of 0.6%.

A Westpac research note highlighted that the major contributors to the surprise GDP jump were net exports (+0.5ppts), personal consumption and expenditure (+0.8%qtr), dwelling investments (+4.6%qtr) and domestic demand.

Preliminary nominal GDP year-on-year came in at 0.4%, up slightly from 0.3% expectation, and improving upon the revised -0.1% figure. The preliminary Q1 GDP deflator came in at -1.4% year-over-year, below the forecasted -1.5%, and weaker than the prior Q4 result of -1.3%.

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