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Midday News Recap: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Drop 62k, ECB Raises Rates 25bp Print E-mail
News Recap |  Written by CEP News |  Jul 03 08 15:53 GMT | 
(CEP News) - There was a flurry of U.S. releases this morning on the heels of the European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates 25 basis points, which was accompanied by dovish comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet. In the U.S., the nonfarm payrolls report was weak but in line with market expectations, initial weekly jobless claims surged above 400k and the ISM non-manufacturing index fell into contraction in May.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined for the sixth straight month, falling in line with expectations by a total of 62k jobs in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. May's jobs figure was revised to a loss of 62k from an initially reported loss of 49k.

The unemployment rate remained at 5.5% following the half-percentage point surge in the rate last month. Nonfarm payrolls were expected to fall by 60k jobs in the month, with expectations ranging from -20k to -130k. Also, economists expected the unemployment rate to have overshot last month and to come back down slightly to 5.4%. So far this year, the U.S. economy has shed 438k jobs.

However, economists from HFE noted a -52k revision to the previous two months, bringing the net loss of jobs over the past two months to a "grim" -114k.

The services sector in the United States fell into contraction in June, with the ISM non-manufacturing index falling to 48.2 from a previous reading of 51.7 and against expectations for a more modest decline to 51.0. Leading the decline was a record-low in employment, a record-high in prices paid and a slowdown in new orders as well as production.

"The release highlights the growth/inflation conundrum currently confronting the Fed, with both variables moving very strongly in the wrong direction," noted T.J. Marta, a fixed income strategist from RBC Capital Markets. "Inflation is a battle that can and needs to be fought by other countries. The Fed is the only central bank that can work to attain full employment in the US. At the very least, the Fed cannot hike, as is currently priced."

Initial jobless claims in the United States surged to 404k in the week ending June 28, following an upward revision to 388k in the previous week from an initially reported 384k. Continuing claims fell to 3.116 million for the week ending June 21, according to figures released by the Department of Labor.

Forecasts were for initial claims to come in at 385k and for continuing claims to fall to 3.123 million following the previous week's rise to 3.139 million. This week's initial claims figure is above the four-week moving average, which is now 390k.

"The disappointing 62,000 decline in non-farm payroll employment in June is a timely reminder that the US economy remains desperately weak," noted Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics London. "Moreover, the jump in initial jobless claims to 404,000 last week, from 384,000, indicates that we may yet see much bigger declines in employment in H2."

Underground natural gas storage in the United States increased 85 billion cubic feet in the week ending June 27, according to the Energy Information Administration. The weekly increase was slightly below the +88 Bcf Bloomberg estimate and the +89 Bcf Reuters estimate. The previous week, the EIA reported a supply increase of 90 Bcf.

The Royal Bank of Canada released its national forecast Thursday, in which it said the country's economy will manage growth of just 1.4% in 2008 but stage a quick recovery next year when it is expected to expand by 2.5%.The RBC report forecasts that Canada's core inflation rate will trend higher this year but remain below the Bank of Canada's 2% target and stay there through 2009.

Canada's housing market is also poised to cool, the forecast says, as soaring prices have driven the cost of home ownership beyond the reach of many families.

Data released overnight showed retail sales in the euro zone shot up 1.2% in May, up from the 0.6% increase expected. Year-over-year, retail sales rose 0.2% against expectations they would fall by a further 0.7% following the 3.0% decline in April.

According to data released by Markit Economics on Thursday, the euro zone services purchasing managers' index fell to 49.1 in June. Economists had expected the index to fall to 49.5, in line with preliminary estimates and down from May's 50.6 level. The euro zone composite PMI slipped to 49.3, down from both the 49.5 figure expected and May's 51.1 reading.

In a BBC radio interview aired on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that both the U.S. and the UK were "very focused" on the current economic downturn, but added that there was "plenty we can do" about the situation.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced the Australian balance on goods and services in seasonally adjusted terms was a deficit of A$965 million in May 2008, a turnaround of A$977 million on April 2008. The figure for April has been revised to a surplus of $A12 million.

According to a report by AiG, Australia's performance of services index declined further to a reading of 45.4 in June compared to the 49.7 reported in May.

Also overnight, Iceland's central bank board of governors announced that the policy interest rate would remain at 15.5%.

By Stephen Huebl, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , with contributions from Geoff Matthews, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Erik Kevin Franco, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , Todd Wailoo, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it and Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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