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Overnight News Recap: Record High UK PPI, PBOC Hikes Reserve Ratio Print E-mail
News Recap |  Written by CEP News |  May 12 08 10:53 GMT | 
(CEP News) - Record high PPI in the UK, declining industrial production in Italy, and persistent inflation in China which caused the PBOC to hike the reserve ratio by 50 bps were some of the economic events of the weekend. In Japan, markets also received a flurry of economic data, ranging from money supply to bank lending, and in Australia, markets received new home sales.

Numerous components of UK's April producer prices data series rose to record highs, according to figures published on Monday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS said producers' input prices rose 2.4% in April from 1.7% in March, well above market forecasts for a 2.0% increase in seasonally adjusted terms. Year-over-year, April input prices rose 23.1%; the highest increase since records began in 1986. It follows a 20.5% rise in March and forecasts for a 21.7% increase.

The UK's visible trade deficit improved marginally over March, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Monday. UK's visible trade balance with the rest of the world was in deficit of £7.437 billion compared with £7.587 billion in February, revised upwards from the previously published figure of £7.5 billion.

The UK's trade balance with non-EU nations stood in deficit of £4.085 billion up from £3.772 billion in February, while the trade balance with the EU was also in deficit, at £3.7 billion compared with £3.5 billion in February. The UK's trade in services, considered the mainstay of the UK economy, improved to a surplus of £3.4 billion from £3.3 billion in February. It took the total trade in goods and services to a deficit of £4.031 billion from a £4.331 billion gap the previous month.

UK Small and medium-sized (SME) manufacturers have sharply raised the prices of their goods to try and tackle the strongest cost pressures in over 20 years, a Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey revealed on Monday. In its latest SME survey, the CBI observed that during the three months to April, 51% of survey respondents said that their average unit costs had gone up while 7% said they had decreased. The resulting balance of +43% is the strongest in over 20 years, driven by much higher energy and raw material costs.

According to data from the National Institute for Statistics (ISTAT), Italian seasonally adjusted industrial output fell 0.2% in March month-over-month, unchanged from the decline seen in February, but lower than the flat reading expected.

Speaking in Bucharest, Romania on Monday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Guy Quaden stated that the ECB's current monetary policy was "fully appropriate" and was not impeding economic growth in the euro zone. Quaden also said that the ECB can be flexible in the coming months, as needed.

On Monday, the Slovenian State Forecasting Institute projected inflation in Slovenia to ease in May. Food and energy costs are contributing to inflation, the Institute said, adding that the largest risk to inflation was from wage growth. On April 30, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia announced that inflation in Slovenia had risen 0.8% for the month of April.

China's consumer price inflation for April came in close to a 12-year high in April, on the back of continually rising pork prices, the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a data release on Monday. Annual inflation rose to 8.5% from 8.3% in March, just below a record high of 8.7% last seen in February. Food costs rose 22.1% in April in year-over-year terms, the NBS said.

Shortly after, the People's Bank of China rose the reserve ratio to 16.5%, 50 bps above the previous 16.0% level.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China's Sichuan province was hit by a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on Monday morning.

The foreign purchase of Japanese stocks rose ¥417.2 billion in the week ending May 2 after rising ¥300.8 billion in the previous week. Buying of bonds fell ¥859.1 billion following the previous week's ¥588.0 billion sell-off. Meanwhile, Japanese bought ¥9.7 billion in foreign stocks following the ¥11.3 billion purchased the prior week. The Japanese also sold ¥14.0 billion in bonds following the previous week's ¥36.0 billion sell-off.

The Japanese monetary base (M2+CD) rose 1.9% year-over-year in April, above forecasts for a 2.2% increase, but slower than the previous month's revised 2.3% increase. Prior to revisions, the monetary base has risen 2.2%. Broad liquidity rose 2.8% compared to the consensus 3.1% gain and prior month's 3.3% increase. Bank lending including trusts rose 1.2% year-over-year in April, in line with the consensus and above the prior month's 1.1% pickup. Excluding trusts, bank lending rose 1.3% compared to March's 1.2% gain, and bank lending adjusted rose 1.7% in April, in line with March's increase.

Australian home loans declined 6.1% month-over-month in March, further than the consensus 0.8% fall, and the previous month's 5.9% pull-back was revised down to a 6.8% decline.

Australian investment lending declined 7.2% month-over-month in March after falling a revised 10.1% in February. Prior to revisions, investment lending declined 9.5% in February.

According to National Australia Bank, the Aussie business confidence index declined to a reading of -8 in April from March's -4 reading. The business conditions index remained unchanged at a score of 7.

Japanese bankruptcies rose 8.3% year-over-year in April after rising 8.0% in March.

According to a survey by Eco Watchers, the current conditions index for Japan declined to a reading of 35.5 in April compared to March's 36.9 level. The economic outlook indicator fell to 36.1 compared to the previous 38.2 reading.

A preliminary look at Japanese machine tool orders showed a 0.3% annual increase in April compared to the previous month's 3.3% gain.

The Japanese economic outlook is uncertain, said Bank of Japan Governor Maasaki Shirakawa at a luncheon of the Japanese Press Club on Monday morning. Although a slowdown in the economy is expected, Japan should return to a moderate path of positive GDP, he said citing low interest rates in the country. Shirakawa added that the BOJ was also monitoring the inflation situation and downside risks to growth, adding that the Board was not committing to a predetermined monetary policy path.

JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds week ending 2-May -¥859.1B vs. Prior: -¥588.0B

JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks week ending 2-May +¥417.2B vs. Revised: +¥300.8B Prior: +¥301.3B

JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks week ending 2-May +¥9.7B vs. Prior: +¥11.3B

JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds week ending 2-May -¥14.0B vs. Revised: -¥36.0B Prior: -¥34.6B

JN Money Supply M2+CD (Annualized) April +1.9% vs. Exp: +2.2% Revised: +2.3% Prior: +2.2%

JN Broad Liquidity (Annualized) April +2.9% vs. Exp +3.1% Revised: +3.3% Prior: +3.1%

JN Bank Lending including Trusts (Annualized) April +1.2% vs. Exp: 1.2% Prior: +1.1%

JN Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (Annualized) April +1.3% vs. Prior: +1.2%

JN Bank Lending Banks Adjust (Annualized) April +1.7% vs. Prior: +1.7%

AU Home Loans March -6.1% vs. Exp: -0.8% Revised: -6.8% Prior: -5.9%

AU Investment Lending March -7.2% vs. Revised: -10.1% Prior: -9.5%

AU NAB Business Confidence April -8 vs. Prior: -4

AU NAB Business Conditions April 7 vs. Prior: 7

JN Bankruptcies (Annualized) April +8.3% vs. Prior: +8.0%

JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current April 35.5 vs. Prior: 36.9

JN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook April 36.1 vs. Prior: 38.2

JN Machine Tool Orders (Annualized) April Preliminary +0.3% vs. Prior: +3.3%

EU Italy Industrial Production (SA) (Monthly) March -0.2% vs. Exp: unchanged Prior: -0.2%

EU Italy Industrial Production (WDA) (Annualized) March -2.5% vs. Exp: -1.0% Revised: -0.7% Prior: -0.8%

EU Italy Industrial Production (NSA) (Annualized) March -7.4% vs. Exp: -4.6% Revised: +3.1% Prior: +2.9%

UK Producer Price Index Input (SA) (Monthly) April +2.4% vs. Exp: +1.8% Revised: +1.7% Prior: +1.8%

UK Producer Price Index Input (NSA) (Annualized) April +23.3% vs. Exp: +21.4% Revised: +20.1% Prior: +20.6%

UK Producer Price Index Output (NSA) (Monthly) April +1.4% vs. Exp: +0.6% Revised: +1.1% Prior: +0.9%

UK Producer Price Index Output (NSA) (Annualized) April +7.5% vs. Exp: +6.4% Revised: +6.5% Prior: +6.2%

UK Producer Price Index Output Core (SA) (Monthly) April +1.0% vs. Exp: +0.3% Revised: +0.4% Prior: +0.3%

UK Producer Price Index Output Core (NSA) (Annualized) April +4.6% vs. Exp: +3.2% Revised: +3.4% Prior: +3.1%

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/M March -£7437 Exp: -£7500 Revised: -£7587 Prior: -£7487

UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/M March -£3772 vs. Exp: -£4000 Revised: -£4085 Prior: -£4023

UK Total Trade Balance GBP/M March -£4031 vs. Exp: -£4400 Revised: -£4334 Prior: -£4439

By Erik Kevin Franco, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it with contributions from Todd Wailoo, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it and Gaurav Sharma, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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