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The Week Ahead Canada & U.S.: U.S. CPI and Retail Sales Print E-mail
US Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Oct 10 08 22:50 GMT | 
(CEP News) - It will once again be a volatile week for markets, with data having little impact on market moves. According to some traders, the news over the weekend from the G7 meeting will play a big role in what happens in markets during the week.

There is a full docket of U.S. reports, which include retail sales, CPI regional manufacturing surveys and consumer sentiment.

North of the border, it will a shortened trading week in Canada due to Thanksgiving. This week's lack of economic data in North America won't have much impact on the markets, said David Duggan, fixed income trader at the National Bank of Canada.

"It's all about funding, libor and interest rates. The bigger problem is that banks won't lend to each other at any rate," he said. I think what needs to happen is the government has to guarantee inter-banking lending rates like what they did in the UK. That will loosen up the credit market," Duggain said.

Conrad DeQuadros from RDQ Economics said the markets will be focused on comments from world leaders attending the G7 meeting to see if countries can come together to try to resolve the current global credit crisis. He added if action is taken over the weekend, it could help give markets a much needed boost.

"I think a lot depends on what happens this weekend and what actions are taken to stabilize the markets," he said.

In terms of economic data, inflation won't the main focus following the past week's co-ordinated central bank cut, DeQuadros said.

"I don't think inflation is something people are going to pay attention to in the near term but it will be an issue we will have to address down the road," he said. "For next week whatever focus there will be data will be on the real economy data like retail sales."

Jimmy Tintle, futures broker at Transworld Futures.com, said markets will remain low despite good news out of the G7 meeting because of the weak state of the economy.

"I think things could settle down a little next week and we will trade between 800 and 1100. I don't see us breaking above 1100 because the economy still remains weak," he said.

John Sidawi, senior trader at Federated Investment Management, said he is still expecting high yield currencies to deleverage their positions and move into the U.S. dollar.

"Fundamentals are a zero component for currency markets right now. If there is some economic data that is on your radar, it might actually throw you off of what is actually happening," he said. "I think markets will continue to be very defensive and that means sell high yielders and buy low yielders like the U.S. dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen."

Bill Hornbarger, vice-president of fixed income at AG Edwards, said the flight to quality moves in the last few weeks looks slightly overdone and bonds could come off their recent high levels.

However, it is too early for any clear trend in bond markets. Hornbarger said he is still expecting to see big swings in prices as volatility continues to rule the markets.

"I think we are beyond the flight to quality bids. The Fed has stepped in to help money markets. I think investors now realize there is going to be more supply and a bigger deficit," he said. "There is still demand for high quality assets but at a price, and that price is starting to change."

All times in EDT

Sunday:

The week starts with Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaking on the global financial crisis in Washington, D.C. G7 world leaders are in Washington over the weekend to talk about the current economic crisis.

8:45 US Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher to Speak on Financial Crisis in Washington

Monday:

Monday is a light day in terms of economic data, but markets will be listen to what Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig has to say when he speaks at an event in Washington, D.C.

8:15 US Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig to Speak on Regulation in Washington

Tuesday:

It's another light day for data with the release of U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism, which is expected to fall to a level of 45 in October following a previous reading of 45.8.

In the afternoon, markets will receive the U.S. monthly budget statement for September, which is expected to show a surplus of $54.0 billion, compared to the previous surplus of $112.9 billion.

8:30 CA New Motor Vehicle Sales (M/M) August Exp: -1.0% Prior: -0.8%

10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism October Exp: 44 Prior: 45.8

13:00 US Treasury to Sell $25B 3-Month Bills

13:00 US Treasury to Sell $27B 6-Month Bills

14:00 US Monthly Budget Statement September Exp: +$45.0B Prior: $112.9B

17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Prior: -43

Wednesday:

The data starts to pick up with the release of U.S. PPI, retail sales and the empire state manufacturing survey. Looking at U.S. PPI, economists expect the annualized core data to rise 3.8% in September following a previous reading of 3.6%. Monthly core PPI is forecasted to rise 0.2%, matching the previous gain of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales are expected to fall yet again in September. The consensus for headline sales is for a drop of 0.7% following a decline of 0.3% in August. Retail sales excluding autos is expected to fall 0.2% following a previous fall of 0.7%.

The Empire State for October is also scheduled for release on Wednesday. The survey is forecasted to tick lower to a level of -10 following last month's level of -7.4.

Markets will also pay close attention to what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say as he will talk about the economy at the Economic Club of New York.

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E October 10 Prior: +2.2%

8:05 US Boston Fed President Rosengren Speaks on Economic Outlook in Boston

8:30 US Producer Price Index (M/M) September Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.9%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (M/M) September Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.2%

8:30 US Producer Price Index (Y/Y) September Exp: +8.7% Prior: +9.6%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (Y/Y) September Exp: +3.8% Prior: +3.6%

8:30 US Advance Retail Sales September Exp: -0.7% Prior: -0.3%

8:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos September Exp: -0.2% Prior: -0.7%

8:30 US Empire Manufacturing October Exp: -10 Prior: -7.4

10:00 US Business Inventories August Exp: +0.5% Prior: +1.1%

12:15 US FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks to Economic Club of New York

13:00 US Treasury to Sell 4-Week Bills

14:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Report

19:00 US Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn Speaks on Economy in New York

Thursday:

It's another big day in the U.S. with the release of U.S. CPI for September. The consensus for annualized core CPI to remain steady with a rise of 2.5%. Monthly core CPI is also expected to show a steady increase of 0.2%.

Markets will receive more regional manufacturing data, with the release of the Philly Fed survey for October. Economists expect the survey to show a reading of -10, down sharply from last month's reading of 3.8

8:30 CA Manufacturing Shipments (M/M) August Exp: -0.5%

8:30 US Consumer Price Index (M/M) September Exp: +0.1% Prior: -0.1%

8:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (M/M) September Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.2%

8:30 US Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) September Exp: +5.0% Prior: +5.4%

8:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (Y/Y) September Exp: +2.5% Prior: +2.5%

8:30 US CPI Core Index SA September Prior: 216.650

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E October 11 Exp: 465K Prior: 478K

8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E October 4 Prior: 3659K

8:30 US Consumer Price Index NSA September Prior: 219.086

9:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows August Prior: $6.1B

9:00 US Total Net TIC Flows August Prior: -$74.8B

9:15 US Industrial Production September Exp: -0.8% Prior: -1.1%

9:15 US Capacity Utilization September +77.9% Prior: +78.7%

9:30 US St. Louis Fed President Bullard to Speak on U.S. Growth Potential

10:00 US Philadelphia Fed Survey October Exp: -10 Prior: 3.8

10:35 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E October 10 Prior: +88 Bcf

11:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E October 10 Prior: +8123K

11:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E October 10 Prior: +7175

11:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E October 10 Prior: -489

11:00 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E October 10 Prior: +8.66%

12:00 US Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern Speaks in Houghton, Michigan

13:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index October Exp: 17 Prior: 18

20:00 US Boston Fed President Rosengren Speaks About Foreclosures in Boston

Friday:

The week ends with the release of U.S. housing data and consumer sentiment. Economists expect a gloomy outlook for the October preliminary reading of the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment. Sentiment is expected to fall to a level of 65.0 following a 70.3 reading in September.

U.S. housing starts and building permits for September will also be released on Friday. Economists expect housing starts to drop to 874k in September from the previous month's 895k level. Meanwhile, building permits are also expected to show a decline to 843k from August's revised level of 857k.

8:30 US Housing Starts September Exp: 870K Prior: 895K

8:30 US Building Permits September Exp: 840K Prior: 854K Revised: 857K

10:00 US University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment October Preliminary Exp: 65 Prior: 70.3

12:45 US St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to Moderate Panel on Economic Policy

14:00 US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Speaks on Economic Outlook in Wisconsin

By Neils Christensen, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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