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The Week Ahead Japan and Australia: Japanese CPI, Employment Print E-mail
US Economy |  Written by CEP News |  Nov 21 08 20:07 GMT | 
(CEP News) - While Thursday is expected to be quiet in the United States due to Thanksgiving, it will be hectic in the Asia Pacific, with markets set to receive several key Japanese data points. The rest of the week in the Asia Pacific is expected to be relatively slow in terms of data releases.

At the top of the list is the Japanese consumer price index for November, to be released in Tokyo. Nationwide figures will be issued for October. Tokyo's headline index is expected to post a 1.1% year-over-year increase, while CPI excluding fresh food is forecast to rise 1.3% following a previous 1.5% increase.

Tehmina Khan from Capital Economics expects a 2.0% year-over-year drop in the nationwide component, against the general consensus forecast for a 1.9% increase and the previous print's reported 2.3% rise.

"Looking ahead, with both commodity prices tumbling and favourable base effects kicking in, we expect inflation to plummet. Indeed, a brief period of deflation looks likely next year, with the year-on-year decline in prices bottoming out at well below 1.0%," she said.

Thursday will also see the release of Japanese employment data for the month of October. The country's jobless rate is expected to increase to 4.2% from 4.0% previously, while the job-to-applicants ratio is expected to drop to 0.82 from 0.84.

Calyon chief Japanese economist Susumu Kato, meanwhile, expects a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.83 ratio.

"While [the] unemployment rate has been recently more or less flat reflecting shortage of workforce over a long term, [the] job-applicant ratio has been showing clear downtrend suggesting that deterioration in macroeconomic conditions have been weighing on employment right now," he wrote, adding that the downtrend in the ratio is poised to continue amid the current financial crisis.

Kato considers the upcoming industrial production report - also scheduled for release on Thursday - the most important release of the week, as the country's technical recession presumably will continue to take its toll on production activities. He forecasts a 2.8% month-over-month decline, against the general consensus forecast for a 2.5% decrease. Year-over-year, the consensus forecast is for a 6.4% decline.

Markets will also receive October retail trade data on Thursday. A 0.9% month-over-month decrease is expected following a 0.5% drop in September. On an annualized basis, a 1.0% decrease is expected, following the previous report's revised 0.3% drop.

The week is generally slow elsewhere in the Asia Pacific. Australian markets will receive third-quarter construction work done on Tuesday and new private capital expenditure figures on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its fourth-quarter two-year inflation expectations on Monday. Markets will receive the country's October trade balance data on Wednesday.

All times in EST:

Monday:

Monday is a relatively quiet day. Japanese corporate service price data for October are due out. In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its two-year inflation expectations for the fourth quarter.

18:50 JP Corporate Service Price (Y/Y) October Exp: -0.5% Prior: +0.1%

21:00 NZ RBNZ 2-year Inflation Expectation 4Q Prior: +3.0%

Tuesday:

Markets will receive the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments for November, as well as skilled vacancies statistics from Australia's Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR).

0:00 JP Bank of Japan Monthly Report

0:00 JP Supermarket Sales (Y/Y) October Prior: -2.2%

19:00 AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies (M/M) November Prior: -3.7%

19:30 AU Construction Work Done Q3 Prior: -2.6%

Wednesday:

The BOJ will release the minutes from its October 14 and 31 meetings. The New Zealand trade balance for October will also be released to markets.

16:45 NZ Trade Balance October Exp: -1000 Prior: -1183

16:45 NZ Imports October Exp: 4.37B Prior: 4.35B

16:45 NZ Exports October Exp: 3.42B Prior: 3.17B

16:45 NZ Balance YTD October Exp: -5.2 Prior: -3622

18:50 JP Bank of Japan minutes from the October 14 and 31 Monetary Policy Meetings

19:30 AU Private Capital Expenditure Q3 Prior: +5.7%

21:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence November Prior: -42.3

21:00 NZ Money Supply M3 (Y/Y) October Prior: +6.6%

Thursday:

The evening is complete with data releases, with Japanese employment and CPI figures expected to be the main market draws. Core Tokyo CPI for November is expected to slow to a 0.3% year-over-year increase after it previously rose 0.4%. Meanwhile, the country's jobless rate is forecast to increase to 4.2% from 4.0% previously. In addition, retail trade and industrial production data are due out.

16:45 NZ Building Permits (M/M) October Prior: +8.4%

18:15 JP Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI November Prior: 42.2

18:30 JP Jobless Rate October Exp: 4.2% Prior: 4.0%

18:30 JP Job-To-Applicants Ratio October Exp: 0.82 Prior: 0.84

18:30 JP Household Spending (Y/Y) October Exp: -3.5% Prior: -2.3%

18:30 JP Tokyo CPI (Y/Y) November Exp: +1.1% Prior: +1.2%

18:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (Y/Y) November Exp: +1.3% Prior: +1.5%

18:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) November Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.4%

18:30 JP National CPI (Y/Y) October Exp: +1.7% Prior: +2.1%

18:30 JP National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Y/Y) October Exp: +1.9% Prior: +2.3%

18:30 JP National CPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) October Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.2%

18:50 JP Industrial Production (M/M) October Preliminary Exp: -2.5% Prior: +1.1%

18:50 JP Industrial Production (Y/Y) October Preliminary Exp: -6.4% Prior: +0.2%

18:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E November 21 Prior: -¥89.8B

18:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E November 21 Prior: -¥512.8B

18:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E November 21 Prior: +¥162.7B

18:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E November 21 Prior: +¥213.9B

18:50 JP Retail Trade (M/M) SA October Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.5%

18:50 JP Retail Trade (Y/Y) October Exp: -1.0% Prior: -0.4% Rev: -0.3%

18:50 JP Large Retailers' Sales October Exp: -4.2% Prior: -3.3%

19:30 AU Private Sector Credit (M/M) October Prior: +0.7%

19:30 AU Private Sector Credit (Y/Y) October Prior: +10.1%

20:00 AU HIA New Home Sales (M/M) October Prior: -1.8%

23:00 JP Vehicle Production (Y/Y) October Prior: +4.2%

Friday:

Reports scheduled for release revolve around lower-tier Japanese data. Housing starts are arguably the most important data of the day. A 29.5% year-over-year increase is expected for October following a previous 54.2% rise.

0:00 JN Small Business Confidence November Prior: 37.6

0:00 JN Housing Starts (Y/Y) October Exp: +29.5% Prior: +54.2%

0:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts October Exp: 1.114M Prior: 1.126M

0:00 JN Construction Orders (Y/Y) October Prior: +10.3%

By Ryan Szporer, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , with contributions from Neils Christensen, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Sarah Sussman, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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