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U.S. Jobless Data Show Employment to Get Worse Before it Gets Better, Economists Say Print E-mail
US Economy |  Written by CEP News |  May 01 08 13:07 GMT | 
(CEP News) - With both first-time and continuing claims for jobless benefits in the United States back on the rise, economists are saying the employment situation will still likely get worse before showing any signs of improvement.

A total of 380k initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending April 26, higher than the 365k economists had expected. The previous week's figure was revised up slightly to 345k from 342k.

The volatile four-week moving average moved down for the second consecutive week to 363.8k from 370k.

Continuing claims for the week ending April 19 also bumped up, rising to 3019k from an upwardly revised prior of 2945 (previously reported as 2934k). Economists had expected a reading of 2950k.

"This morning's report adds further support to our claim that the U.S. employment situation is going to get a lot worse before it gets better, and that the unemployment rate is likely going to rise a lot further over the next few quarters," noted Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at HFE, noted that the less erratic eight-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.5k to a new cycle high of 369.2k, "slightly higher than the level prevailing at the start of the recession in 2001."

Shepherdson also forecasts falling employment for "at least" the next few quarters.

"It is not a coincidence that our estimate of seasonally adjusted announced job cuts - we adjust the raw data from the Challenger survey - rose to a 34-month high in April," he wrote in a client note. "Companies are seeking to control costs to maintain earnings growth, and the biggest and most controllable cost for most businesses is labor."

The total number of people remaining on the jobless rolls topped 3 million in the week, the first time in four years, noted David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. He also noted the percentage of the insured workforce rose 2.3%, marking a 42-month high.

"Overall, the report reaffirms that the job market remains weak but conditions are not deteriorating as fast as they have in previous recessions," Resler noted.

By Stephen Huebl, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


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