The ADP figures are the primary tool to forecast the nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the benchmark employment figure for the U.S. However, the two surveys have been reporting different trends since November 2007, leading many economists to view the ADP results with a skeptical eye.

The consensus expectation is for the BLS survey to report a loss of 105k jobs in September, a much sharper loss than expectations for the ADP survey, which has been outperforming the BLS count for many months. Expectations for ADP vary widely, however, ranging from -20k to -135k.

Mike Englund, chief U.S. economist from Action Economics, said he expects the ADP survey to outperform the BLS nonfarm report again this month due to several factors. "Because the ADP figures aren't depressed with strikes, as are payrolls, the September data should show the ADP figures outperforming payrolls because of the Boeing strike," he said.

Douglas Porter, assistant chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said markets are pretty focused on the financial turmoil but that economic data isn't being ignored altogether. He said the ADP survey gives nearly up-to-the-date information, though neither employment report can fully capture the effects of the past week's turmoil.

Just as with the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, Porter said the numbers "may come with an asterisk," which would effectively discount any positive print as temporary, but perhaps put more emphasis on a negative print.

The loss of labour in the August ADP survey was driven by a 78k decline in the goods-producing sector, which has now been in decline for 21 consecutive months; the service sector failed to offset that decline, rising by just 45k in the month.

After the August report, Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, characterized the figures as part of a long string of weak reports that were consistent with a slowing economy that had not yet slipped into recession.

Economic indicators for September have so far painted a bleak picture of the U.S. employment market.

Jobless claims have been above 425k for nine weeks now, including last week's jump to 493k initial claims, the largest number since just after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Historically, a figure above 400k suggests a recession in the broader economy, though new regulations extending benefits and making it easier to file a claim have pushed an upward bias of unknown quantity into the figures.

Meanwhile, continuing claims have been above the 3 million mark for 20 weeks now and, as of the week ending Sept. 13, are currently at a cyclical high of 3.54 million.

Following the claims data last Thursday, Ian Pollick from TD Securities said the U.S. labour market was under severe duress, and he offered a sour prediction for the coming months. "The possibility of further casualties down the pipeline promises to increase the number of job cuts to around 100-120K per month through the end of the year," he said.

The ADP results are based on a sampling of payroll data collected from nearly 400,000 private companies across the nation, covering around 24 million employees.

By Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

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