Scotiabank economist Karen Cordes said weakness in consumer spending has been seen across the board recently, a trend that should only continue in April after the fourth month of job losses, further declines in home prices and rising gas prices. Each of those trends feed into a reduction in discretionary spending, she added.

Charmaine Buskas, senior economics strategist at TD Securities, said the story remains the same as last month: consumers are facing headwinds from a soft job market, weak wage growth, and elevated food and energy prices. She expects retail sales to fall by 0.4% in the month. Excluding autos, the report should come in flat, she added.

Buskas said the retail sales report is the most important indicator coming out this week for the U.S., followed by the CPI report on Wednesday.

Commenting on the uncertainty seen in the various forecasts, Cordes said some economists may be expecting consumers to have adjusted their spending based on the fiscal stimulus tax rebate cheques, which began being sent out in late April. That gives a lot of room for interpretation, but on the whole, there aren't many positive signs about April's data or the broader trend, she said.

Buskas said the only positive sign for the retail market comes from the second-tier indicators, which came in stronger than expected and may point towards only moderate weakness. Chain store sales expanded by 3.6% compared to a year before in April, following a 0.5% decrease in March, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers last week.

In March, U.S. retail sales surprised with a 0.2% rebound in sales following the previous month's 0.4% decline. Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose 0.1% in March while retail sales excluding auto and gas came in flat.

By Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Nancy Girgis, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it