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(CEP News)- All signs point to a fourth month of heavy job losses in April's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The consensus looks for a reduction of 75,000 jobs in the month, with the range of economists' forecasts varying from a loss of 18,000 to 150,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 5.2% from 5.1%. A slew of data supports the general forecasts for continuing weakness in the labour market, following last month's loss of 80,000 jobs and February's decline of 76,000. The most recent initial jobless claims report showed the eight-week moving average of jobless claims move up to a cyclical high at 369,200, while the continuing claims figure bumped up to 3.019 million. The moving average of initial claims is slightly higher than the level prevailing at the start of the 2001 recession, according to HFE chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson. Employment in the ISM manufacturing survey fell far below the neutral 50 level to 45.4 in April, a five-year low. Similarly, the employment component in the Chicago Business Barometer, a regional measure of both services and manufacturing, dropped nearly 10 points in April to a 35.3 level. On Wednesday, the ADP private employment report saw an unexpected gain of 10,000 jobs, following a revised 3,000 gain in the previous month. The ADP report is often considered to be the primary tool in forecasting the BLS survey, but in recent months the two surveys have been heading in different directions. Yet even with the gain, ADP spokesman Joel Prakken said the qualitative story is that "employment has ground to a halt," adding that even service sector jobs are at a third of the level they were at a year and a half ago. Abiel Reinhart, economist at JPMorgan, said the downard trend in employment will continue for several months, forecasting a drop of 90,000 in Friday's BLS report. Paul Ashworth, U.S. economist with Capital Economics, said the employment report is one of many indicators which is often subject to wide revisions, even in times when job growth is strong. This makes accurate forecasts highly difficult even when the economy is not rife with uncertainties. By Patrick McGee,
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