Only a handful of the 77 economists surveyed expect core inflation to advance by 0.1% or 0.3%.

One of them is David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast, who said the risk is on core inflation to come in at 0.3% in the month, due to prices in apparel and medical care, while the weak U.S. dollar contributes to higher import prices. His model puts core inflation at 0.25%.

Ken Beauchemin, U.S. economist at Global Insight, said there is "still evidence of trend deceleration in the core rate," for instance in the three-month changes, which have been down "markedly" in recent reports.

He said the atmosphere doesn't justify an upside surprise to 0.3%, as some sharp drops in the previous report will likely rebound this month, excluding a surprise to the downside. For example, apparel fell by 1.3% last month, so it will likely see a gain in this survey.

Sloan said the expected 2.4% year-over-year rate for core inflation and the 4.0% rate for total inflation are consistent with the latest FOMC statement, which indicated the Fed has taken a step back from rate cutting in order to evaluate the effects of monetary policy to date.

He said recent economic data "has picked up to a sufficient degree" so that another rate cut shouldn't be needed, and said only another collapse similar to the Bear Stearns liquidity crisis would provoke a change from that attitude.

If CPI comes in higher than expected, there could be some expectations that the Fed would tighten interest rates earlier than anticipated, he added.

In the March report, core inflation picked up 0.2% and gained 2.4% from the same month a year ago, while total inflation rose 0.3% to contribute to a 4.0% annual gain.

In theory, soaring energy prices should eventually materialize in the core rates, but "we've been lucky so far," Beauchemin added, noting there's not a lot of concrete evidence that higher energy costs will translate into core prices.

He said the headline figure cannot be ignored, as it indicates how good or bad consumers will be feeling. However, from a policy perspective, the core rate remains preferable.

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