David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast, said "economic data has been bad, but there's been no convincing data that the economy is in steep contraction." He expects a 0.4% gain in the first quarter, adding that there's "no evidence the second quarter will be much weaker."

Moreover, while the stimulus package is unlikely to jump-start a strong recovery, it may be successful in preventing a prolonged recession, Sloan added.

Of the 80 economists surveyed, expectations range from a negative 0.8% reduction to positive 1.5% growth.

Meny Grauman, economist at CIBC World Markets, expects the first quarter to come in marginally negative with a 0.2% reduction. However, from an economist's perspective, he said the difference between a flat or slightly negative report makes little difference.

However, a figure below zero could be portrayed as confirmation of a recession in the media, while a slightly positive number could be considered a saving grace, he said. In either case, the broader picture is a flat first quarter that will likely be followed by a "heavily negative" drop in Q2.

Economists from Capital Economics said the possibility of large contribution from inventories could put first quarter GDP growth as high as 1.5%. "But as this would largely reflect the involuntary accumulation of stock that could not be sold, it would not be a sign of strength," they wrote. "Indeed, a larger overhang of unsold inventories would simply add to the downside risks to GDP growth in Q2."

By contrast, Ken Maylake from ClearView Economics said, "If Q1 is positive, I do not think this implies Q2 will be worse (because) Q2 benefits from the tax rebate."

Economists from TD Securities are looking for a half-point advance in the first quarter, attributing the sluggish growth to "an outright contraction" in domestic demand "led by considerable weakness in business investment," which will be slightly offset by minor positives in consumer spending.

Grauman said there has been quite a bit of slowing down in Q1, noting the only reason things haven't fallen off the cliff is consumer spending, which, though at the lowest levels since the early 1990s, have not fallen into contraction.

In addition, exports are expected to have provided some support, he said.

By Patrick McGee, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it